I talked about and research this last year and posted here. My conclusion was that if Greece drops out of the EUR then Greek stocks are a great buy(Ala Argentina) the day after. But buying before such thing is risky because the loss of a return to the drachma will be really large and it will be all upfront(70% overnight or so) If I knew with high confidence they would not return to drachma I would probably allocate 3-4% of my portfolio on some Greek ETFs(Traded in europe, not the US one) on the 'buy when there is blood on the streets' dogma but I don't have that confidence
http://www.economonitor.com/nouriel/2012/03/07/greeces-private-creditors-are-the-lucky-ones/ Roubini seems correct here. Fiscal transfers in the form of official debt restructuring could be a potential solution for Greece so it stays in the EUR zone. I'm afraid the political issues of a large official writedown of the debt will prevent them from just accepting they will be mostly wiped out on their Greek debt. So they might keep doing it too little too late cuts(Taking the projected 120% by 2020 to 110%, then 100%, instead of just accepting massive writedowns and be done with the problem)
I appreciate different views and feedback. Have no problem with people disagreeing with me. I do have problem with extremely negative people who offends others for no reason and have huge egos, the guy is clearly mentally ill. He is the type of guy who will go to Tahiti, love it for a couple days, then start bitching about his bed or room service
Hilsenrath saying Fed is not signaling anything just showing its toolbox http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012...nd-buying-program-under-consideration-at-fed/
Back at 100% long on HKD(Thinking of buying more though) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204603004577268753111588304.html I'm totally shocked he would say this, HKD immediately spiking. I'm shocked because he is doing that with the currency close to testing the band, this will force them to print money at the time they might not want to(Or maybe they do want to as monetary stimulus, though inflation is awfully right). Either way the R-R is out of whack here
To me there is a chance that he is just lying to get some of the voters pissed about inflation to vote for him. But the big thing is the closeness to the band, this is going to put them in a BOE type situation where keeping the band means creating economic outcomes they might not want to(More inflation, more property speculation) My position is already 2x my networth and I might buy more so this could be the trade of my life
Sounds to me like somebody realized that creating market expectations for QE when no QE is likely forthcoming, would be a really bad idea - so now they're backpedaling.
I'm thinking is a bit bizzare how people can bet on QE3 and think the economy will do just fine at the same time
Also short USDHKD, but not of enough size to affect my speculative account or net worth. Will study to see if it's worth making a significant position. I'm assuming this Tang character has little if any shot at winning the election and the statement is to try and win some votes from the unwashed set.