Well 1% rates may be low for Germany, just as 0% rates are probably low for Iowa or North Dakota at the moment. Central planning is a tough game. I think a lot of money is flowing into Germany. I'm adding to it by upping my position RWE.
So my goldstock portfolio has gone to flat for the year after being up 20% at some point. 2 ways to look at it, either I lost not selling or I haven't lost year to date on them. I think I will chose door nr 2 thank you.
All it took was one down day in the market for the Fed to leak more QE plans. Sheesh. Imagine what these guys might do if stocks go down 10%? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...82234.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
Fed might have to found a loophole here. They can do this OTwist 2 and then if the economy weakens, let the short-term deposits expire, expanding the balance sheet, effectively doing a delayed QE3 without much attention brought to it
Pretty cool global campaign http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4MnpzG5Sqc The guy who made it is a terrific film marker. This seems to be going along with the idea that globalization is making tail events control a bigger share of the total and the world more unpredictable
And on the other side of the coin, they might realize considerably less effect from this than from regular QE. You get two effects from QE, the "I have some printed money now which I must put somewhere, so I'll bid for stocks/gold/oil" (currency debasement) and "the Fed is coming in to rescue the economy and support stocks, so my fears are unfounded" (boost to confidence/reach for yield/etc). With stealth QE you'd lose the second effect, perhaps significantly dulling the benefits of the program, while Fed balance sheet "room" in effect represents a finite resource - and stealth QE would consume this resource just as quickly as the regular variant. This is not to say they won't do it but it could turn out to be a big misstep.
NFLX gets Appleized. https://www.google.com/finance?chdn...1&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:NFLX&ntsp=0 iCloud already has 100M users and now will support movies that can be downloaded to any AAPL device. Just your run-of-the-mill day - a 5% gain morphing into a 4% loss.
I think thats right. They will argue that what matters is how many bps they take off the back end of the curve and how much that will raise GDP in some models. But to me expectations are more important than whatever small impact it will have on rates