Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Out of euro short for a nice 60 pip gain - enough to take the kids out for oysters and steaks tonight.:cool:

    I'm not yet ready to commit to a longer-term euro (or aussie) short at the moment but couldn't resist fading that pop on the NFP report.
     
    #2811     Feb 3, 2012
  2. You are right ofcourse, the Russia reference was aimed at their low birth rates. The aging population is more a Western European problem also probably, as is the low birth rate as well.

    If I am correct the US escapes both trends by immigration partially...

    And then there are those who say China will face a massive aging issue sooner then later...

    No expert on it at all, but an obvious effect of it would seem to me a declining savings rate... And governments taking huge one sided bets in hope of being able to pay for it all...:D
     
    #2812     Feb 3, 2012
  3. Hi all,

    I have a question regarding a escel sheet i was wondering if any of you has a good escel sheet with tracking macro data like the nfp nrs ism etc.

    If so if there is a possibility if that can be shared would apreciate it enorm and i also kearn a bit more what you gusy find really important and what not to keep track off.

    Thank you so much
     
    #2813     Feb 6, 2012
  4. Did some work over the weekend and decided it makes no logical sense to own stocks like MSFT and WMT, but not AAPL - which trades with similar metrics, but better growth prospects.

    I note with some satisfaction that all 3 stocks have performed similarly since the time I bought WMT and MSFT.

    http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...;NASDAQ:AAPL&cmptdms=0;0&q=NASDAQ:MSFT&ntsp=0

    Sure to upset GoC, I've allocated X dollars to AAPL in one of my accounts and for now plan to buy 10% of X each month over the next 10 months, the 1st purchase of which has already been executed.:cool:

    I'm not sure why I'm worried about a significant decline in AAPL because it would surely be met with an unleashing of part of its $100B stash to its owners.
     
    #2814     Feb 6, 2012
  5. Daal

    Daal

    Does anyone know William Buiter forecast for the EUR for the next year or 2?He thinks there is now 50% chance Greece will leave the EUR zone
     
    #2815     Feb 7, 2012


  6. I believe he has been screaming parity for some time now...
     
    #2816     Feb 7, 2012
  7. I think Jordan just responded to this...

    "Given this difficult environment, we remain firmly committed to defending the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. This commitment applies at any time, from the moment the market opens in Sydney on Monday to when it closes in New York on Friday. We will not tolerate any trading below the minimum rate in the relevant interbank market. To enforce this policy, we are prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities if necessary. Moreover, we stand ready to take further measures if the economic outlook and the risk of deflation so require."

    Full speech text here: http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id/ref_20120207_tjn/source/ref_20120207_tjn.en.pdf
     
    #2817     Feb 7, 2012
  8. Actually, I think he's raised the chance to 52% from 48% previously. Expectations were for 51.5%. Please.

    RBA giving everyone a great chance to short the aussie by leaving rates unchanged. Aussie shot to $1.08 on the news. I'll demure, having too much fun being mostly out of the currency markets for a few weeks.:)
     
    #2818     Feb 7, 2012
  9. A bureaucrat such as Jordan ought to know that currency trading begins as the sun comes up in New Zealand - 2 hours before things get underway in Sydney.:)
     
    #2819     Feb 7, 2012
  10. Quotes like that are always such bullshit.

    Like Roubini saying there is a 50% chance on a new recession.

    Thanks for that oracle.
     
    #2820     Feb 7, 2012