Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Butterball

    Butterball

    Marfin's stock is down 98% or so from 2007 highs so yes, they're probably not doing too well.
     
    #2601     Dec 23, 2011
  2. #2602     Dec 23, 2011
  3. Digs

    Digs

  4. #2604     Dec 28, 2011
  5. You will end up with an excessively large position if you sell more on each rally.
    .
     
    #2605     Dec 28, 2011
  6. dhpar

    dhpar

    :D
     
    #2606     Dec 28, 2011
  7. Silver soon 50% down from the peak.

    I think it could reach 20$ or so...and then I will put all my money in it. :D
     
    #2607     Dec 28, 2011
  8. Ok. Sell more on every other rally. :D
     
    #2608     Dec 28, 2011
  9. Silver had a pretty strong reversal today, after touching the panic low from September - sometimes this pattern marks a major low, and is followed by a strong rally (e.g. S&P on October 4 made a double bottom + reversal day of this kind); other times it rapidly fails and the market collapses. I think it's a coin flip IMO whether it is a major low today, or whether it breaks back down quickly and then heads much lower (15-20). However, this presents a good trade setup IMO - either buy a straddle here, or go long - with a stop and reverse at today's low (in fact if the market closes below today's low, I would go short on bigger than average size). So if the market rallies big, or collapses big, you make good gains - you lose if it chops around at these levels for a while.

    Another indicator of a possible reversal is the sentiment towards precious metals. Consider this bloomberg article today (which may be one of the most misleading and incompetent pieces of financial non-journalism of 2011):

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ll-year-on-bear-market-brink-commodities.html

    It is rare for Bloomberg (or other mainstream media) to cover gold/metals so prominently - making up a total non-story on what was (until the last few hours) a big down move to new lows, smacks of exactly the kind of emotional BS headlines that the media have become famous for as contrary market indicators.

    I wouldn't bet the farm here, and could easily be proven wrong within 2 or 3 trading sessions, but IMO the setup is good enough to cover any bearish bets, and put on a moderate bullish position with a close stop (& reverse) at $26ish.
     
    #2609     Dec 29, 2011
  10. jj90

    jj90

    FWIW, a buddy of mine who has been absolutely wrong on PMs this year recently (less than 1 week ago) went long. He hasn't puked yet....
     
    #2610     Dec 29, 2011