Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Sure, so I am not really prepared to buy it here. Maybe when/if the dividend cuts happen, so that people who are in it for the wrong reasons get washed out. As a result, when/if it gets quite a bit cheaper, I'll be poised and ready.
     
    #2591     Dec 22, 2011
  2. If you are looking for dividend check out BELG.

    Sure bet...:)
     
    #2592     Dec 22, 2011
  3. Haha, thanks, Debaser... Just a couple of questions arnd that, though:
    1) What am I going to do with all those Belgian francs?
    2) Actually, come to think of it, the real question is whether it's actually going to be Walloon francs or Flemish francs or a bit of both? Or, better yet, shares of Dexia?

    :)
     
    #2593     Dec 22, 2011
  4. Hey BELG really is a company man!

    And about the Euro I'll bet you a penny it will still be around new year 2012... And we will still be part of it.

    You'd be bettter of shorting JBG's...:p
     
    #2594     Dec 22, 2011
  5. Ah, I see... Belgacom on Euronext.

    And yeah, I was only kidding about the Belgian/Walloon/Flemish Franc.
     
    #2595     Dec 22, 2011
  6. Stop being such a bitter douchebag. Me and a lot of other folks 14 year investment in NLY literally changed our lives (for the richer).

    As I mentioned here, I sold out of all my NLY a few months ago (wouldn't be surprised if me and Big Jeff sold :cool: at the same time) because of 3 reasons:

    1. The SEC is considering altering a tax rule, which, if changed could prevent NLY from using much, if any leverage.

    2. Refi worries if the BO administration actually went ahead and did something to allow a mass move (that worry looks to have passed)

    3. Flat yield curve from the Twist makes it harder to profit on the carry trade.

    I've since re-purchased at a couple of dollars less than I sold, but a far smaller position than I had built up over the years. I'm certain I'll never have such a large part of my assets in the company again.

    Since 1997 NLY has been through several rate hike cycles, rate cut cycles, the 2000 bust, and the financial crisis - the company has cut and then raised its divvie on a number of occasions. It's still standing, and its investors (who reinvested divvies) have seen average compounded returns in the area of 20%. These guys know what the fuck they're doing.

    I don't know much about any of the other MREITS.
     
    #2596     Dec 22, 2011
  7. Specterx

    Specterx

    Just because it's TBTF doesn't mean equity holders will come out OK. Though since there (incredibly, given 2008) doesn't seem to be any formal process to impose losses on bond- and equity holders without causing Lehman-like disruption, it's a decent idea. Future gov't lifeboats will include everyone, and if at some point this changes you'll likely have plenty of warning.
     
    #2597     Dec 23, 2011

  8. Also, as relevant as Gundlach's perspective is, I would point out his and our investment objectives are not aligned. Gundlach has a bogey to meet, maybe every quarter, at least every year. If he gets caught in an asset class that declines while his competitors are out of it, he will underperform his peers by a few basis points - death to a bond fund manager. It's his job to constantly be rotating out of things that could decline a hair over the next quarter or two, something an investor in NLY shouldn't even be paying attention to.

    I should add the overriding reason I sold my NLY was that it had become such a large portion of my liquid net wealth. I could have had all the above concerns about NLY, but a far smaller position, and none would have led me to sell the stock.
     
    #2598     Dec 23, 2011
  9. Daal

    Daal

    I have a dormant account at Marfin Laiki Bank that I haven't used in years. I never get any email from them, until this week

    'AutoDeposits without the use of an envelope!

    Now you can easily and conveniently AutoDeposit cash and cheques without the use of an envelope, using our Bunch Note Acceptor (BNA) at selected ATMs. After inserting your card and keying in your PIN, select Deposits and the account you want to perform the deposit to. Then just insert your bunch of notes without separating the notes into different denominations. Once you verify the transaction, the money will instantly be available in your account! Click on Learn more to view the list of ATMs that provide this.'

    'InterContinental

    Enjoy 5 star luxury for only €120 for 2 persons per night with breakfast! Exclusively for Marfin Laiki eBank subscribers from InterContinental Aphrodite Hills Resort.'

    It seems they might be facing liquidity pressures
     
    #2599     Dec 23, 2011
  10. Daal

    Daal

    Marfin is one of the top banks in Cyprus
     
    #2600     Dec 23, 2011