I found specially troubling Mario statements of 'we are not supposed to go against the spirit of the law'. You would think that if he didn't want go do something he would just say 'We did not discuss this option' but with that statement he is making even harder on himself to starting bailing everyone out down the line because he is already saying he doesn't want to use loopholes Seems entirely reasonable that at one point he gives up and loses face but its going to take a bigger crisis in my view
Excess reserves are going to go up (not by â¬500b, but rather more like â¬200b, given the other tenders rolling off)... The excess liquidity in the Eurosystem is going to go up to arnd â¬470b and is likely to depress the overnight rate, which is something that they would welcome as a sneaky rate cut.
Not really, but they never intended to drain the liquidity injected through the LT/MROs. They're intentionally looking to obtain the same result that they got with the previous 440b 1y LTRO, i.e. depress the effective O/N rate (EONIA) well below the headline refi rate. It's an extra stealth rate cut.
Seems to me an attempt to reverse the decline in M1 M2 and M3 that seems to have started in Oct https://stats.ecb.europa.eu/stats/download/bsi_tab02_03/bsi_tab02_03/bsi_tab02_03.pdf If the banks use the reserves to buy assets from non-banks it would boost those measures
Yes, it is, in fact, an attempt to offset or, rather, mitigate the immediate effects of the massive deleveraging that is occurring throughout the European economies.
I really need to fund my intrade account soon. Markets there can be quite inefficient sometimes. As of yesterday the prob of France getting downgraded was at 75%(by Jun 30 2012), yet ZH showed some quotes from S&P sov director that makes me think the prob of a downgrade is large Seems almost a done deal unless some kind of miracle happens
"The ECB will hold a second auction of unlimited three-year cash in February, allowing banks to pre-fund themselves for all of next year and beyond, say analysts. " http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-ecb-emergency-funds-amid-frozen-markets.html Makes me wonder whether this first 3 year LTRO was actually under subscribed as some banks held back because they knew they could get the same loans at the likely cheaper rate in Feb
Yep, it's a reasonable guess... Some of the new ECB measures also didn't apply to this tender (more eligibility of collateral, decline in the required reserve ratios, etc) , but will apply to the one in Feb. So it's possible that the one in Feb will actually see more participation.
I'm finding tempting to go long BAC and short XLF as a pair trade(The short leg would be only open during the likely US recession and EU troubles, then it would be closed) Reasoning is as follows BAC is too big to fail, the main reason the stock is depressed is the litigation uncertainty(some of it is economic uncertainty but BAC is down more than the sector due the former) but its unlikely that the government would itself actively try to bankrupt the firm so the litigation will be lower than otherwise due this fact There is no TARP now, the way BAC can raise capital by Eric Holder making phone calls and preventing large fines against the firm and let the company raise its own capital through pre-tax earnings