Simon Hunt on copper. Not the first time he's been bearish, but it makes one ask himself why he would ever cover his AUD short. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/201...ical-glimpse-into-the-ghost-of-copper-future/
I think I worked out what is confusing me the most. SocGen and Credit Agricole are trading as if they could easily enter a downward death spiral, whereas North American and UK banks are trading as if nothing is wrong. At the time of typing this, SocGen is at 16.02 and ACA at 4.06, both very close to key support levels, but US and UK banks are up by 1% to 2%. edited to update: SocGen breaks below 16.00 and Commerzbank breaks below 1.30
As referenced by m22au's last post, the mkts are not pricing an EU collapse in. This isn't to say that there's not a serious fundamental problem there, but it's maybe not what you expect. And here's another crazy scenario, let's say the EU completely implodes, what stops the trading partners from trading among each other ex the EU? And I know someone says; you can't expect a corp that does 30% of sales in EU to magically switch that 30% to the US. Why not? Last I looked there is organic albeit sluggish growth in NA. And while my opinion is that China is having their 07' currently, Asia ex-China is still growing at a good clip and with worldwide CBs easing, this round of musical chairs can keep going. IMO at least till global growth actually picks up, maybe in 5 years.
Great read on China ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ial-data-with-too-big-to-complete-alarms.html "Treadmill to hell," indeed.
In honor of the funniest twitter stream out there and the about as close a thing as you'll get to a free Bloomberg terminal combining with Bank of America's latest print ...
Short China trade about to get crowded ... http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/517d6668-2a4b-11e1-b7f2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1gtI4TULf