Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    Must be an HTML M E T A code they are disabling due the child pornography issues
     
    #2511     Dec 14, 2011
  2. Daal

    Daal

    GMCR down massively over the last 2 days. Tylerdurden updates nowhere to be found
     
    #2512     Dec 14, 2011
  3. Great piece by Josh Brown. While I believe that the nonsense has created some wonderful profit opportunities, I agree with his sentiments and offer a hearty "up yours" to the central planners who have created this situation.

    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/12/14/retail-investors-say-no-mas/

    How many all-or-nothing gap-up and gap-down days can the normal human being watch occur in a row before they realize that the whole thing is bullsh*t? How many beatings can an investor take in their portfolio holdings when not a single piece of news on their stocks ever even came out? How much correlation can a person stand when they're watching 40 of their holdings get jerked up and down every day on rumors and innuendo, thus negating the benefits of diversification and research entirely?
     
    #2514     Dec 14, 2011
  4. gmst

    gmst

    GoC, those are pretty solid points, especially on the similarity with the sovereign wealth funds example, and how all of them got massacred. Market is bigger than any player, thats true even for China.

    Actually, when you begin to see China dumping Euro, that will be a sight to behold and make money from. EURUSD will behave similar to the way EURCHF was behaving few months back, down 200-400 pips in an hour day after day. Will be a great profit opportunity for the nimble, if China does have to sell eventually.
     
    #2515     Dec 14, 2011
  5. How do we know they're not selling this week.:)

    Much of China's buying of euros is an accounting identity. Exporters get euros from customers and turn them into their bank which turns them into the PBOC which gives the bank freshly printed yuan in exchange.

    China can't "sell" its euros any more than it can bail out European sovereigns.
     
    #2516     Dec 14, 2011
  6. #2517     Dec 14, 2011
  7. Daal

    Daal

    EUR is tough right now. I've been burned many times this year shorting the low 1.30ish only to see it spike to 1.40 again and again. I might have to bit the bullet and try the trade again(up from my current small short). I won't be adding right now, might as well wait for the next 'we are saved' rally

    I suppose it makes sense to put a largish short and put a stop on some kind of upside break of the downtrend
     
    #2518     Dec 14, 2011
  8. Please let us know when you decide to pull the trigger on the euro short, so I know when to cover my own short. :D

    Seriously, I'm waiting for the French downgrade. I expect a 100 point whoosh down in the euro at that point, and that should mark the low for the time being.
     
    #2519     Dec 14, 2011
  9. dhpar

    dhpar

    isn't it amazing, that a currency (NOK) that has no problems whatsoever (debts/deficits/etc) and which would in case of a demise of EUR basically link to the strong northern club currencies (and is therefore a natural hedge against this occurring) is under-performing even EUR? (not even mentioning the carry)

    there is nobody dumber than the smart money...



    p.s. the similar thing could be said about the loonie...
     
    #2520     Dec 14, 2011