You're under the assumption that I'm trying to play some sort of blow-off move at the very end of a massive bubble, i.e the move to $50 in 1979 or 1980 (whenever). I don't see it that way at all. I'm going to be out of the market and on to something else long before that happens. You're also under the assumption that I'm going to be dicking around with these things trying to eke out some extra profits right around expiration. That's a venue for pros and the boys in the pit, I don't play there. I'm going to be out of them and on to something else well before expiration. If that means getting $4.25 on the spread instead of $5, so be it. In case anyone is thinking of tagging along, I should emphasize the speculative nature of this trade. Silver could start a bear market tomorrow for all I know, and these options aren't being given away. The FCX, EWH, EWT puts were Jim Rogers' "finding money in a corner and picking it up" trades. They were priced so stupidly low and the market had barely had a down day in weeks, it was just a matter of buying and waiting for a tiny market shake.
ECB hikes could be the difference between life and death to EU periphery http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/04/05/536341/greek-and-irish-interest-rate-stress-tests/
Well, firstly, I am not talking about dynamically hedging it. Secondly, yes, there is pin risk, but again this is a portfolio held to maturity. It's not that hard. Well, I don't know... I would agree, but only to a point, since I think generalizations are rather pointless. Well, again, this isn't a naked short call... Secondly, again, generalizations among commodity asset classes are not very appropriate. Finally, without knowing what the skew is like I don't see how you can conclude that outright calls are a better bet. Using simple calcs for Jan expiries, I see that the price at which the R/R on the outright call breaks even with the R/R of the 45-50 call spread is arnd 57.5. Does that tickle your fancy?
If your business model or government financing scheme relies on interest rates scraping zero, than you've got no model. You're dead already and just waiting for the coroner to make it official.
Dude, it's a bit of a squeeze. Treasury GC is trading at 0 and there are bonds (3yrs) trading at -3%. I think the new equilibrium in FF shouldn't be too much lower than here, tbh, but at the moment it's all one way.
A very long piece for those who want to understand better Brazil's economy and politics http://www.lrb.co.uk/v33/n07/perry-anderson/lulas-brazil In my view much of the attributed 'wisdom' of lula is just a by product of the economic boom, the article itself mentions that most of the poverty eradication was the result of either growth or social policies(financed by gov revenues that were fueled by growth) And the economic boom has more to do with the global commodities boom than any government policy
Didn't the gov't just force Agnelli out of VALE for focusing on profits ahead of "domestic investment." Chilling stuff for emerging market investors.
Steinhardt http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000014541 Rips buffett, is betting against the 2y UST