Global Macro Trading Journal

NFLX ... wow.

 

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3366764#post3366764

Not sure if you saw it, but in addition to the capital raising, they are warning of a loss for all of 2012:

"NETFLIX: Oh, And By The Way, We're Going To Lose Money Next Year"
http://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-lose-money-2012-2011-11

 

And GMCR up again premarket. Can't make this stuff up.

Waiting to hear for when Tilson blows out of NFLX. I will buy on that day and await a takeover offer from Google or Apple at a 50% premium.

 

Just covered a bit of EWH short on the open. Also shorted a bit FMCN. I'm not entirely sure Muddy Waters is correct here. The seem 100% right management is corrupt, the question is whether the core business is crap and is being hidden by them or whether they are milking the cow.

After reading their report I'm speculating they are hiding something. Its extremely weird for management to go out of their way to writedown goodwill down to $0, anyone who short stocks knows about this. It seems that they had 19 acquisitions they wrote down to $0. Its extremely fishy

I'm keeping in mind however if the management is milking the cow, the Waters report is actually bullish for the stock

 

Soros plan to save the EU No XXII
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45397501

Ceilings on bond yields

 

IMF offering another great opportunity to reload shorts.

 

Tilson on NFLX today. "Irritating," he says. Idiot.

No sign he is selling yet, though.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/11/22/netflix-stock-sale-is-irritating-tilson-says/

 

I read recently 'A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers'. Can't recommend the book enough, its excellent. Now I understand what really happened in Lehman, there were a LOT of people in LEH who knew it was the top of the market and Lehman should be dumping assets, buying hedges, etc. But the main heads were too enamored with the bubble to listen to anyone

The guy who wrote it was a trader at the Convert and Distressed bond desk, they made a lot of money betting big on single company plays(They bought a ton of Delta Airlines bond in the BK day, also bet that New Century Fin would go under). This is a play I need to do more, do deep research on a company, know their financial statements better than my mother and make a big bet

 

I know Larry McD. Still exchange emails with him once in a blue moon.

 

Here is a start.

Have a look at AMR and tell me if you see:

(a) an airline about to go bankrupt in 2012
(b) an airline that might do a massive dilutive capital raising to delay option A.
(c) both of the above