Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    I've noticed that when the EUR goes down against the USD it tends to go up by almost the same amount agains the SEK and NOK. Which makes me think there is some kind of low risk trade here. I'm currently short against the SEK and USD(covered on the NOK). The P&L is flat most days but I have a free ride in case the EUR implodes(its likely to go down against both) maybe I should increase the trade because it seems a low risk way to be shorting EURs betting on total collapse
     
    #2281     Nov 21, 2011
  2. How are you positioned if there is a huge rally?

    Not saying there will be one or they could trigger one but will they reallly let the likes of France burst past 5% and do nothing cause the main focus has to remain on inflation?
     
    #2282     Nov 21, 2011
  3. Does Buffett own a stake in LUK? He just told CNBC he's not interested in JEF.

    LUK has been knife-catching JEF all the way down, so I'm curious as to why Buffett would publicly pull the rug out from under them.
     
    #2283     Nov 21, 2011
  4. Great post from Peter Brandt re: MF Global. Just another day in Geithner and Bernanke's America.

    http://peterlbrandt.com/mf-global-p...-is-not-able-or-willing-to-protect-investors/

    I would posit that the selloff in risk since Halloween is as much, if not more to do with MF than with Europe. If assets in segregated brokerage accounts can be stolen while under the eye of regulators (Gensler from CFTC and Corzine are old GS chums), nothing is safe.
     
    #2284     Nov 21, 2011
  5. Daal

    Daal

    I'm probably net long on risk assets right now
     
    #2285     Nov 21, 2011
  6. Covered AMZN puts near the open. Don't want to say how many bags. :p

    I personally tried out the Fire this weekend and found it to be a huge, stinking, piece of crap - which probably means they'll sell about 9 zillion of them to folks who need to read People magazine, buy the latest Harry Potter, and watch Dancing with the Stars on an inferior piece of equipment from any spot on the planet.
     
    #2286     Nov 21, 2011
  7. It's not a binary option. However, as a rule, I only buy/sell things that I am happy holding to maturity/settlement and whose fundamental value I have a view on, regardless of my view on what happens before we get there. According to your logic, everyone should have been happy to invest w/Madoff, 'cause, before you got wiped out, you would have collected some nice returns and been able to get out. And yes, Japan CDS can go up 100x in value, but I still believe it's a sh1t worthless product and won't be involved. That's just my view and doesn't constitute advice of any sort.
    Yep, sure, but that's apples and oranges. Firstly, the fact that someone takes profit on the trade before maturity doesn't mean that was the original intent. Secondly, corp CDS is different to sov CDS in a number of key ways.
     
    #2287     Nov 21, 2011
  8. You do realize you've completely lost it now.
     
    #2288     Nov 21, 2011
  9. #2289     Nov 21, 2011
  10. #2290     Nov 21, 2011