Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    What do you mean by nuke?I think they are doing the right thing by not borrowing at these rates. The EU will come to the rescue I suspect through the 20% guarantees but it could be something else
     
    #2111     Nov 9, 2011
  2. Daal

    Daal

    #2112     Nov 10, 2011
  3. Daal

    Daal

    It seems to me that high PPP currencies went from being safe havens to risk assets
     
    #2113     Nov 10, 2011
  4. Coup complete in Athens. Papademos' first act as PM? A plane trip to Brussels.
     
    #2114     Nov 10, 2011
  5. #2115     Nov 10, 2011
  6. Europe solved again. Another great fade opportunity coming in the EUR. Only question is whether to do it before the close today. Might get a euphoric Sunday night bounce if Italy forms a new Vichy gov't by then. On the other hand, EUR will open sharply lower if Italy backtracks.
     
    #2116     Nov 11, 2011
  7. #2117     Nov 11, 2011
  8. Daal

    Daal

    Random anecdotal fact: I was offered a apartment buying 'opportunity' in Sao Paulo the other day while in a bar with my brother having some beer. The woman said I could get an teaser loan with a low interest rate and refinance in a few years after the price rose. The apartment price was quite expensive
     
    #2118     Nov 11, 2011
  9. Some say the PIGS need to devalue so they can become attractive again...

    But today you can earn the same working part time in a supermarket in Wester Europe then you can make working 50 hours a week in Italy as a college graduate...

    How much wider does that gap needs to get for them to reclaim productivity again...


    Also Today I read the statistic that according to the Dutch German chamber of commerce in 2010 75% of German exports went to other European countries, +60% of German exports go to other EU zone members.

    Those poor Germans. Ranting about those lazy Italians and Greeks when perhaps they actually owe their employment to them...


    It's a interesting phenomenon.

    I used to work weekends as a student in a place that relied largely on the spending of unemployed and uneducated yet the boss back then did nothing but complain about how you could get everything for free in this country if you just didnt work.
     
    #2119     Nov 13, 2011
  10. Butterball

    Butterball

    After tax net income does not equal unit labor costs. Unit labor costs are the ratio of total labor costs divided by real quantum of output.

    The Germans managed to drop their unit labor costs by some 10% over the last 10 years while the PIGS ran then up 10-20%. I am sure they have taken some steps in the right direction and are in the 2nd inning of becoming more competitive but there's still a long way to go. Unfortunately for the PIGS they were dumb enough to sign themselves to the slavery chains of the EUR zone. The Peseta, Lira and Drachma would take care of the competitiveness problem. Just like the Pound does for the Brits.

    Krugman - like him or not - wrote a piece recently comparing the UK and Italy's challenges with productivity in light of one tied to the EUR it can't print and one having a flexible exchange rate:

    'Britain has achieved a 15 percent relative deflation via depreciation; it would take incredibly painful deflation for Italy to achieve the same.'

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/italy-and-the-uk/
     
    #2120     Nov 13, 2011