Sell the rips, but the dips! Is there any doubt that the world will be again saved at some point in the next 24 hours? You'll likely get a chance to reload at $1.03. I'm pleased I sold euros and aussies on the silly pops this week, but am not smart enough to cover just yet.
Its true at some point they will save it again. ECB was buying furiously Italian bonds today. But i have a feeling that you not selling off probably is a better decision. Who knows! Good luck.
ECB has not been buying furiously. They bot, in my estimate, less than â¬2bn, which is 1/2 of the size they did at the beginning of last week.
oops ok i read it somewhere, but obviously you will know better as i assume you know guys who are dealing in that market
No such thing as an average, to be honest, ralph. Average volumes on MTS, which is the dominant electronic platform, used to be arnd â¬5-7bn a day in notional terms (including t-bills, floaters and linkers). That was a year ago or so. Now you're lucky if more than â¬2bn trades and the volumes have been steadily going down. After today, I expect it to get even worse. BTW, MTS volumes and other such stuff are publicly available on their website (www.mtsdata.com). Nobody actually knows, as the ECB doesn't publish the aggregate data on their purchases until the week after. But everyone does make educated guesses, for sure. Based on these estimates, you can work out a rough ballpark number.
Martin curious, why volume is going down on MTS ? Are people dealing more using voice brokers or is it that volume overall is falling. if overall, would you explain why overall volume is falling, is it because of high volatility ? thanks
Yep, nobody wants to trade, as these mkts become more and more dysfunctional and illiquid. Dealers widen their bid/offer, 'cause they have no appetite to warehouse any of this stuff (given the recent Jefferies accident, who can blame them). The real money community are scared sh1tless, so, unless they're selling in a total panic, you won't see them. The fast money punters don't want to get involved, 'cause liquidity is so crap. So, yeah, among other factors, it's a function of high volatility and uncertainty.