Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Don't know about the euro, I said stocks.

    FWIW, G-pap is out within the next 30 minutes. Stocks and euro screaming higher. Euro collapse dudes - here's your shot, ready to move?
     
    #2011     Nov 3, 2011
  2. Daal

    Daal

    I closed my position but I have a laugh to the suggestion that the opposition will approve the bailout. Besides ralph and the american retardation society I don't think anyone will believe on that
     
    #2012     Nov 3, 2011
  3. Not my words, that was from Samaras, who leads the opposition party and will probably be the next PM. Like Ireland, a new government will tweak around the edges, but the fascism is going nowhere. Germany has taken over Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Spain without firing a shot.
     
    #2013     Nov 3, 2011
  4. Daal

    Daal

    You seem to believe government BS only when its convenient for you
     
    #2014     Nov 3, 2011
  5. That doesn't make any sense. In almost every single trade, there is the possibility that the market may stay irrational for a bit longer. After all, the market by definition has to have run irrational for quite a while already, in order for the price to be inefficient enough for it to be worth betting against - and if it's been irrational for a while, it can be irrational a bit longer.

    Since you can reduce the potential drawdown as much as you want via position sizing, fear of a large irrational move against you should simply mean you trader smaller, not that you stand on the sidelines. If there was no irrationality then there would be no trade.
     
    #2015     Nov 3, 2011
  6. You think Greece will act like Ireland? Why won't the new government just default a la Argentina. Also, if the new government tries to do austerity in line with German wishes, how do you know they will last? It's quite possible the public riot even more and the new government collapses within a short time, and that the public keep rioting until massive default occurs and austerity is abandoned.
     
    #2016     Nov 3, 2011
  7. ECB lowers rates...:D
     
    #2017     Nov 3, 2011
  8. Butterball

    Butterball

    Anyone remember the applause for the ECB for their hikes just a few months ago?
     
    #2018     Nov 3, 2011
  9. Why convenient for me. I have no position in the euro. I'm short AUD, a position that will not benefit if the EU stabilizes.

    Everybody consistently underestimates the will to keep this thing going. European politicians have good lives. EU MEPs have the cushiest jobs imaginable at salaries you cannot believe. There are massive bureaucracies built up around all of this. You think these guys want to give this up?

    Yes, a popular revolt in Greece might turn things around, but a Samaras-led gov't will not.
     
    #2019     Nov 3, 2011
  10. When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
     
    #2020     Nov 3, 2011