Tyler Cowen seems to have a similar view to mine http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/11/why-is-greece-turning-down-the-bailout.html I'm concerned however that the EU brigade will try to short squeeze the markets, like they always do, today The fact the Greek PM announced without warning the EU brigade first seems to be a 'tell' for me. That was essentially a slap on their faces which goes to show there is political will for telling the brigade to screw themselves. This is the first time they have done this to my knowledge
The short squeeze committee will meet today at 1PM EST(Merkel, Sarkozi, Papandrou or whatever his name is)
Correction "The Elysee Wednesday said Ms. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy will meet Mr. Papandreou and Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos at 12:30 p.m. EDT. Other European Union leaders and International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde will also attend the meetin" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203716204577013233137976086.html
Think about the following if you will... Italian bonds continued collapsing practicly the same day the rescue package was agreed upon. That put Merkozy in an extremely difficult position. They just came out stating this rescue package was extremely important in saving the Eurozone and 12 hours later they would have to come up with a new rescue package? What were their options then? They had none and their reputation even towards those who do not follow the markets would be shatered. Today (and for weeks, months to come) suprisingly enough nobody will be talking about the holes in the rescue package anymore but everyone's focus will be on the Greeks and why they want to perform Hara Kiri. Now I'm not the biggest fan of conspiracies (maybe a bit) but it seems to me in reality this latest twist of events favours Merkozy more then all the pundits and themselves would like us to believe today. The next 3 months of asset markets under pressure can be atributed entirely to the Greeks once more.
Left early yesterday, so didn't see your post. To be honest, I was really baffled by the Greek's move. The idea of referrendum must have been in Greek's President's mind for a long time. 1. Either, he has taken a big gamble and is playing Russian roulette against Markozy etall. 2. Or, He is suffering from the phenomena of winner's curse and after having won a 50% debt reduction, is thinking that he took the wrong decision and going back to Drachma would be better for Greece and his own political future. Many a times, human beings after getting something that they have wanted/cherished for a long time, begin to re-think and re-assess that particular thing, and value of that erestwhile highly cherished thing goes down in their eyes. Ok, I am just thinking from a political-psychological angle as to what might have been behind referendum decision. Now, the possibility of Greek govt collapsing before the referrandum results are out is another known unknown. And like always there are so many unknown unknowns in this situation. Regarding the risk of getting stopped on this trade, yes the bazooka of headlines are the biggest threat to the trade. Its very easy for euro to spike 2-3 big figures on some headline/rumor just to be negated next day or next hour. However, I will still go with the stop, knowing fully well that getting stopped out on this trade should be considered a distinct possibility. Just because, this is all news driven now, and who knows what kind of news will come and drive Euro where ? So, in my opinion, if you are going to establish a big position, going with a stop is a must and it will be better trade management to get stopped out and re-enter at a possibly worse price upon headline bazooka news getting reversed. Example that comes to my mind is 1Trillion euro bailout fund announcement last year, which moved euro 5 big figures up and then all down, all within the same trading session (London hours - 1.25 to 1.30 move and back).
G-pap is no idiot. By making the referendum about euro membership, he assures a "yes" vote. There is nowhere near a majority in Greece that has any desire to leave the euro. Euro collapse monkeys getting fried again this morning. The issues are elsewhere - the EFSF needs to raise â¬1T, yet just had to cancel a â¬3B bond raise today? China and especially Japan are already losing money on their initial EFSF purchases, there is no chance they'll buy big amounts of EFSF paper anymore. And then there's Italy - in need of the ECB to do massive purchases of its paper, but Draghi can't come in as President and launch QE right away, the Germans would freak out.
It depends on the broker and the terms in the account documents you signed. You can definitely get accounts which are held in your own name though.
Excellent economic commentary from the head of Annaly. http://www.annaly.com/site/executiveinsights.aspx No wonder this guy has delivered for his shareholders as good as any CEO in the country over the past 14 years.
lol, like it a takes a lot of talent to play the carry trade during 2 periods where the Fed steepened the curve
"EU, IMF Aid to Greece on Hold Until After Referendum" http://www.cnbc.com/id/45135887 Am I the only one who think this Referendum equals game over. I don't think there will be a lot of people who will want to run a russian roulette with their deposits on their banks on whether they will be EURs one day and worthless paper the next. So I would expect a bank run to happen before the votes Furthermore its questionable if even they will have the liquidity to survive to the vote. I question if the vote will ever happen