I forgot to note that the implied prob is probably lower than 78%. These bookmarkers tend to take a healthy cut of bets and this gets passed to gamblers in the form of worse odds
BRKB soaring lately, its my only decent sized position(Little less than 10% of my assets). Its a shame I didn't buy more in the Buffet bottom I have been increasing shorts on EUR against NOK and SEK, it appears the the euro is strong but they have been falling consistently against those 2. I'm still underwater there though
As a standalone trade I wouldn't have the guts to go there but short bonds and long CDS could be a good trade. I'm not rich enough to do the trade though
Doesn't mean the price can't move against you and force you to post collateral though. The EU has done what they set out to accomplish by order more than a year ago, and that's effectively ended CDS on sovereigns.
Uh, the market is soaring. BRK doing its best to keep up. http://www.google.com//finance?chdn...&cmpto=AMEX:SPY&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE:BRK.A&ntsp=0 I'm sure all of our stock portfolios are doing just fine (unless we're loaded up w/NFLX or FSLR or AMZN).
Funny. Every single standard time frame I clicked on BRK has outperformed. Except the one you decided to put on
I'm just talking about the last month's rally. FWIW, BRK has underperformed the S&P Y/Y by 11%! http://www.google.com//finance?chdn...&cmpto=AMEX:SPY&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE:BRK.A&ntsp=0 And YTD by 1.5% http://www.google.com//finance?chdn...&cmpto=AMEX:SPY&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE:BRK.A&ntsp=0 Still doing better than Tilson though, so its got that going for it.