"Whit" Tilson -9.5% in September, -29.5% YTD. S&P off 7.8% YTD. Sorry, that's unacceptable for "professionally" managed money. You almost have to make a deliberate attempt in order to be this bad. http://www.marketfolly.com/2011/10/hedge-fund-performance-september-was.html
Paulson's Advantage Plus flagship fund reported to be down 48% YTD. It's peak AUM was $19.1 billion during Spring of this year. So they pi**ed away a cool $8-9 billion in that fund alone. Drawdowns of 50% are levels when senior staff will usually consider 'other oppurtunities' as high watermarks won't be seen again before gains of 100%. No more Christmas shopping with a fat performance bonus until 2014+. Looking at the wreckage in some other funds the downsizing won't be limited to Paulson alone.
Paulson is finished. I expect the liquidation of his holdings has much to do with the unabated selling in stuff like BAC and C. Since roughly 99.5% of all trading in now algorithmic, this would lead to selling of other big financials, leading to selling of the market. One could do a lot worse than timing the exact bottom in financials/cyclicals than marking the moment JP announces he is no longer an owner of these turkeys and closes his fund. http://twitter.com/#!/StockJockey/status/122702666513125376 Exhaustive research has led me to conclude that Paulson hit the skids a few months after he hired Alan Greenspan. Coincidence? I think not
How much was Paulson down on his short before 2008 when it didnt pay of at first? Anyone any idea? Cheers.
I am pretty sure it was done, effectively, through options (i.e. cheap CDS), so he couldn't have been down that much on it.
From what I recall Paulson started the first short credit fund in the summer of 2006 and probably was underwater in the single digits or low double digits tops until late 2006 when the ABX indexes started turning way south. By the time New Century went bust in Feb/Mar 2007 his subprime short bets must have recouped all initial carry losses and then some.
Paulson is irrelevant. The performance chasing monkeys who invested with him are getting their just rewards, though. If you stop being a wiseguy and read the post, it's got an outstanding trading idea in it, one I certainly intend on following.
Oh I read every post in this thread for ideas. 1 thing I've noticed recently out of you ralph vs your earlier stuff is the tone of your posts. If there's 1 thing I've starting to be more attuned to in my trading, it's noticing signs of hubris in my trading and others. And you know what they say about hubris....