Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. I would agree, although it's v hard to predict. At the zero bound, things get really funky.
     
    #1501     Sep 21, 2011
  2. Why do you think it will translate into asset inflation?
     
    #1502     Sep 21, 2011
  3. dhpar

    dhpar

    banks will have to park money somewhere, i.e. treasuries. lower yields should benefit asset prices and reduce cost-of-carry - at least in the medium term...
     
    #1503     Sep 21, 2011
  4. Daal

    Daal

    I very much doubt this. USTs should respond immediately to the announcement and reach an equilibrium level where it would be almost equivalent to Fed reserves. This is a fallacy that Scott Sumner seem to be falling to as well.

    Its like if MSFT announced they are buying a stock that trades at $50 for $80, the stock would immediately rise to $78 or something even though very little trading might be occurring.

    As USTs 'gap up', banks would have little or no incentive to make the switch
     
    #1504     Sep 21, 2011
  5. dhpar

    dhpar

    it is a joke i guess: "immediately reach equilibrium"

    you know very well that it may take weeks for all cash making it into short term AND longer term treasuries...
     
    #1505     Sep 21, 2011
  6. Butterball

    Butterball

    I wonder who ever started this urban legend?
     
    #1506     Sep 21, 2011
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Look at the CHF. Huge market that responded immediately. The onus is on you to explain why risk free profits would stay out there for so long
     
    #1507     Sep 21, 2011
  8. Can anyone explain to me why flattening the yield curve will help the economy? Has the Fed even tried to explain that or are they doing something just for the sake of doing something?
     
    #1508     Sep 21, 2011
  9. Daal

    Daal

    NGDP = M * V. Fed can boost both by doing these types of stimulus, to the extend that nominal fluctuations in cause real problems(And I believe the 1930's show that pretty clearly) these stimulus measures will dimish the real impact of sticky wages, prices and debt deflation
     
    #1509     Sep 21, 2011
  10. You never fail to disappoint.
     
    #1510     Sep 21, 2011