So far my biggest mistake this year has been not having followed through with buying german bunds. I had more confidence in that than shorting EUR but I didn't pull the trigger. The american ETF was quite illiquid and I pretty much never trade european markerts(only through US proxies) so my fear of the unknown cost me quite a bit
If your broker supports EUREX/DTB then you can simply trade the German fixed income futures. They're highly liquid across the maturity spectrum. Also - as opposed to ETFs - no pesky withholding taxes on dividends to deal with.
I believe IB has it but futures have a fixed size which makes it pretty hard to properly size your position. I don't want to chase now too. Maybe if there is a correction
I have to say I find it highly amusing to see people on ET skeptical the SNB can hold the peg. Those are the same people who claim central banks are insane with their money printing efforts that don't end They essentially are betting the CBs will turn hawkish, which goes completly against their own views. Of course, they don't realize that. The truth is that they are skeptical because they are free market purists and it breaks their heart to see a goverment fixing a market price, so their instinct is to say it won't work because the market is stronger. If they like the gold standard then it just adds another layer to their contradiction because the gold standard is quite similar to a fixed currency. I don't see them claiming gold pegs are unsustainable
No, the U.K. set a ceiling on GBPUSD of $1.70. The conventional wisdom was to then sell GBP at $1.70 since it could only go down from that level. McKay instead bought at $1.70 and continued to buy. Finally, the U.K gave in on the ceiling and let sterling go. It rose to $1.90 over the next weeks, making McKay a fortune.
Who is betting? Not me. Simply discussing. The SNB action will unleash unintended consequences that they nor I have no idea about. If history is any guide, they won't be good ones. For now, I have no doubt that the CHF 1.20 floor will hold. How the hell did gold make it into this discussion.