Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. jj90

    jj90

    And how many years did the Roman Empire exist? Are they still around? Or the Chinese Qing Dynasty? Look we get what you are saying and hell I'm long Japanese stocks now, but making generalised statements is a good way to blow up when the 1 black swan happens.
     
    #121     Mar 18, 2011
  2. CH1973

    CH1973


    Why dont you trade the Future at CME or in the BMF or an USDBRL NDF with a offshore dealer?
     
    #122     Mar 18, 2011
  3. Daal

    Daal

    I'm not going to pay, zero hedge will probably leak his stuff for free constantly. Plus he goes on TV(Like Hatzius) and share it all for free as well
     
    #123     Mar 18, 2011
  4. Daal

    Daal

    Plus Rosenberg suffers from perma bearishness like some other analysts(The guy from the boombustblog comes to mind). Its like no matter what the 'problem' is, his opinion is that its going to be worse than consensus
    He is on that camp on MENA, states and municipalities, Japan, GDP this year, and on and on

    I fall on this trap sometimes so my new project will be to increase my exposure to bullish analysts and really try to see things from their perspective. For instance Cramer, who is usually trashed on this board, made a point that I had not considered regarding Japan, he said engineers taking care of the issue are one thing, they are afraid to die and radiation levels but the army(japanese soldiers) are another thing, its part of their job description to die for their country, they could be ordered to take over the plant and do XYZ, they have the whole WW2 kamikaze thing. Maybe thats a last trick the japanese are holding back in case they need
     
    #124     Mar 18, 2011
  5. Daal

    Daal

    I will probably start to look for a good broker that offers the CMEBMF integration(If you know a good one with low commissions let me know). The BMF is not an option given that I trade through a foreign corporation and opening an account is quite complicated. I dont think I'm big enough to play the NDF game(I'm assuming you need millions)
     
    #125     Mar 18, 2011
  6. Daal

    Daal

    If I buy I will buy the DFJ small cap fund. Its really cheap on price book price sales ratios
     
    #126     Mar 18, 2011
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Salerno always seemed to me the most reasonable of the mises.org professors. He's main belief seems to be that deflation isn't bad because of the history the US had in the 18xx of growing output with a stable price level and some deflationary periods
    I believe even Milton Friedman and Bernanke would agree with that(Friedman said the gold standard was not a bad system for that period but it became bad when government started to take over the economy and debt levels rose in the 19xxs)

    With debts high Bernanke and Friedman believe deflation triggers 'debt deflation' which hurts real GDP in the short-run creating unnecessary pain in the economy. I'm curious what is Salerno's critique of Irving Fishers Debt Deflation Theory and Efficiency wage theory(It explains why wages are sticky)
     
    #127     Mar 18, 2011
  8. Daal

    Daal

    #128     Mar 18, 2011
  9. Daal

    Daal

    The US owns around $20b of Japanese Yen, this G7 intervention might very well turn out to become a G6, maybe even less Gs than that as this is not nearly enough to make much difference in the pair. The biggest owner of Yen is the BOJ with a balance sheet of infinite amounts, if they want a weaker yen they should switch to a fixed exchange rate regime and announce they are buying unlimited amount of dollars at 85 but it seems the BOJ will do what they usually do, not enough
     
    #129     Mar 18, 2011
  10. CH1973

    CH1973

    The NDF game is definitly not something that hard to play but you will definitly need an account in a big broker dealer like MS SmithBarney, MLynch, Deutshce, GS, etc.... I believe that to have access you would need at least $500k in this account.
     
    #130     Mar 20, 2011