Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    I think he is playing the bounce. He might put back some hedges if SPX keeps rising. I mention that because he tends to go fully long on panics
     
    #1151     Aug 12, 2011
  2. Butterball

    Butterball

    Arguing equities typically offer higher volatility-adjusted returns than corporate bonds is wrong on so many levels I don't know where to start.
     
    #1152     Aug 14, 2011
  3. Specterx

    Specterx

    After the 2009 debacle (Hussman got little or nothing out of the huge rally) they apparently went back to the drawing board and came up with some short-term market timing strategies. But I think Hussman would agree that now is not the time to buy n' forget - or at least, there will likely be a much better opportunity for that down the road.

    As it happens, in the letter today he indicated that they still haven't taken on any long exposure.
     
    #1153     Aug 15, 2011
  4. Specterx

    Specterx

    Of course the market is wrong all the time, but I find AAPL's case to be highly suspicious. Faddish, big-name new-economy tech stocks aren't supposed to be undervalued at frothy market peaks, such as the one we (probably, in my estimation) just left behind. I can't say I've investigated it to any great extent, but something smells fishy - and every now and again, market prices and valuations really do have a kind of prescience.

    Now that the broader market action appears to be shifting, I suppose the thing to do is to observe as the indices decline over the next few months, and see if AAPL holds firm during that time.
     
    #1154     Aug 15, 2011
  5. Daal

    Daal

    #1155     Aug 15, 2011
  6. Daal

    Daal

    He makes a very important statement. The EFSF being AAA might not matter at all, in fact, the obsession with this rating could be counterproductive
     
    #1156     Aug 15, 2011
  7. Well, some of his points are valid. However, I don't think there's any doubt that Europe in theory has the ability to deal with its issues (as Trichet never stops point out, the Eurozone as a whole is relatively healthy). What's in doubt is the presence of political will to make it happen. On the EFSF, I would agree with his point that size is more important than the rating, but it's hard to actually quantify all these things. It's certainly not true that the AAA doesn't matter.
     
    #1157     Aug 15, 2011
  8. Just one more thing about Apple ... I own some suburban apartment buildings, renting to mostly young professionals. A trip through their apartments shows Apple products everywhere. I suspect a peak into their 401Ks would show the same. The Apple Store in King of Prussia (i was there yesterday) is mobbed in the same way folks slept out overnight to get in on new housing developments 20 miles in the desert outside of Phoenix in 2005. Apple may be the stock of the next decade (it certainly was one of the stocks of the previous decade). However, I will leave it to others to partake in those coming riches.
     
    #1158     Aug 15, 2011
  9. Those apple stores have been chock full of people for years. I used to think it was Peter Lynch gold until one day I found out what everyone is doing in there: waiting around for a tech in the back room to fix their broken iphone or ipod.
     
    #1159     Aug 15, 2011
  10. Good one.

    There were overnight lines for crap subdivisions in Arizona for lots of years too. The ones who bought early enough made lots and lots of money.

    Understand, I'm not making a bearish call on Apple. Just pointing out the trendiness of both its products and its stock, and I just don't like to get involved with something so universally known and owned. (talking investments, as the Ralph household has more than one recently purchased apple product in it, and likely will have at least 2 more within weeks).
     
    #1160     Aug 15, 2011