Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. m22au

    m22au

    * Short selling ban

    AND

    * Merkel / Sarkozy meeting on Tuesday

    * Surge in USD/CHF could encourage risk-taking ???
     
    #1091     Aug 11, 2011
  2. gmst

    gmst

    It was hell of a ride - but finally out with an eek of profit on this trade. What caused this sudden selling of franc ? Any one knows.
     
    #1092     Aug 11, 2011
  3. gmst

    gmst

    There was some talk of a hf selling swisse today in the interbank mkt. Maybe that alongwith pegging to euro talk has caused massive short covering rally now. With the hindsight, Looking at the price action, the whole day swiss franc was basing for a breakout to the upside.

    Does this imply a possible move in usdjpy also to the upside ? Though I am of the view that even if usdjpy goes up, jpy strength in the long run has many more fundamental reasons going for it viz. imminent QE3, reconstruction post the earthquake, near zero rates in japan, deflation in japan, 95% of JGBs in Japanese hands etc.
     
    #1093     Aug 11, 2011
  4. #1094     Aug 11, 2011
  5. Daal

    Daal

    I think the BOJ is far more slow and incompetent(I don't think they ever considered a peg) but maybe I should monitor this possibility more. Hard to find currencies to put your cash in, gold has run a lot as well
     
    #1095     Aug 11, 2011
  6. Just checked my IB account and noticed the low bid I put in on EWG got filled at some point overnight. Woot!
     
    #1096     Aug 11, 2011
  7. We are now seeing the death of the 'safe havens' a.k.a. absurdly overvalued gambling chips for leveraged momentum traders. First the Swiss Franc - destroyed in a mere 36 hours, down over 8%. Next will be T-bonds - expect a 10 handle down week soon. Yen is also risky, so is gold for the short-term. All the 'safe havens' have this huge fear bid, which will dissipate within a short period, and cause price collapse when it does.

    Forget building a stock portfolio - if you aren't long up to your maximum risk tolerance in your investment portfolio, then what are you waiting for, the next coming of 1932? Maximum long (whether that is 60%, 75%, or 100% for you personally) in attractively valued stocks is the only position that makes sense. Being long Treasuries when they yield less than solid blue chips is an indefensible investment position.
     
    #1097     Aug 11, 2011
  8. Yep, this mention of a "nucular" option is what did it. It's gonna be a brave new world if they end up actually doing it. To be sure, they have also been buying back SNB bills and asking for prices in 2m fwds, so they're in full-on intervention mode. I think there's a realization that this time they're deadly serious. As to the peg, the Danish one (ERMII) has been in place for a while, so why not Swiss. But it will be very interesting for sure.
     
    #1098     Aug 11, 2011
  9. m22au

    m22au

    Your thesis makes sense if there is a "muddle through" period of low economic growth or a shallow recession. But if there is a deep recession (especially in light of fiscal austerity) or depression, then this could become 1932.

    Also (brent) oil remains stubbornly high, and the ES:brent ratio is still below 11. If it remains below that level it will hurt those companies that cannot pass on increases in input costs to customers.
    (Do you have a view on peak oil?)
     
    #1099     Aug 11, 2011
  10. So, the Global Macro ET crowd are all long up the gills? Any shorts here?
     
    #1100     Aug 11, 2011