Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. m22au

    m22au

    #1081     Aug 11, 2011
  2. Butterball

    Butterball

    I am using the 2008 playbook looking at things unfolding; and apparently so is everyone else. Talk about recency bias.

    So is this really 2008? Or 1998 (giant bear trap)? Or maybe none of these? Is it human nature (fallacy?) trying to find 1:1 reference points in history.
     
    #1082     Aug 11, 2011
  3. m22au

    m22au

    Well a simple observation is that the European sovereign debt crisis has not been resolved. Until it is, the entire European banking system is suspect.
     
    #1083     Aug 11, 2011
  4. Daal

    Daal

    Whats funny is that if all Asian banks come out and said the story isn't true, the market wouldn't rally 1 tick. Its a one way market
     
    #1084     Aug 11, 2011
  5. m22au

    m22au

    true, in this kind of market, rumors become reality.
     
    #1085     Aug 11, 2011
  6. Daal

    Daal

    Swiss bankers seem to be considering a peg to the EUR. As far as I'm aware this is the only intervention that works, switching to a fixed exchange system and printing unlimited money to keep it there. I don't think they are really serious about this though, at least not until they give up the idea of price stability. I can't see how choosing an artificial level for their exchange rate goes with price stability
     
    #1086     Aug 11, 2011
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Is anyone aware of what trigged the ES pop?
     
    #1087     Aug 11, 2011
  8. Short selling ban having desired effect. Europe back to flat. Central planning with another (short term) victory.
     
    #1088     Aug 11, 2011
  9. Europe to ban short selling. Good for 3% move in Stoxx 50. WOuldn't surprise me to see Europe up 5% today.
     
    #1089     Aug 11, 2011
  10. Daal

    Daal

    I don't know, there is some mouth piece from the ECB saying they might rethink the policy of 'raising rates until we are in the stone age'
     
    #1090     Aug 11, 2011