http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2179957.htm He nailed subprime in march 2007 http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s1883197.htm China displaced America to become the world's dominant consumer of industrial raw materials. China's share of global consumption is about 22 per cent, the US is 16. For nickle China's 12, the US is 10. For iron ore, China's off the charts. China's steel production is now more than twice as large as the US and Japan combined. China dominates global seaboard trade in iron ore. That's why prices have increased so dramatically over the last two or three years. So the critical question, I think now for metal prices, is the Chinese business cycle.
The Chinese businesss cycle is a perpetually increasing line, a cycle of zero frequency & infinite periodicity.