Global Economic Forecast: Q4 2018 and Beyond

Discussion in 'Economics' started by dealmaker, Nov 28, 2018.

  1. dealmaker



    BySara B. Potter, CFA | November 28, 2018

    As we near the end of 2018, Sara Potter examines the performance of the global economy so far this year and presents projections for the rest of 2018 and 2019 from various sources. Read on to see Sara's key takeaways.

    • Global economic growth is projected to come in at 3.7% for 2018, identical to the 2017 growth rate. Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have recently lowered their forecasts for 2019, to 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively. The negative global impacts of tariff hikes are responsible for the weaker outlook.
    • In the United States, 2018 real GDP growth is projected to come in at 2.9%, an uptick from 2017’s 2.2% expansion. Both the IMF and OECD have lowered their forecasts for 2019 because of the weaker global outlook and already-introduced trade measures. The IMF is projecting U.S. 2019 growth to slow to 2.5% while the OECD forecast calls for 2.7% growth. The consensus estimate from analysts surveyed by FactSet is in line with the IMF forecast, indicating 2.5% economic growth in 2019.
    • Growth expectations for the eurozone have been steadily lowered over the last several months as data has continued to point to weakening economic performance. The economy grew by just 0.2% in 3Q 2018, the slowest growth in more than four years, dragged down by weak exports. Forecasts are calling for 1.9-2.0% growth in 2018, followed by 1.8% growth in 2019 according the OECD and FactSet Economic Estimates, and 1.9% growth projected by the IMF.
    • In the UK, uncertainty surrounding Brexit continues to weigh on the economy. 2018 growth is expected to come in at 1.3-1.4%, followed by 1.4-1.5% growth in 2019.
    • The Japanese economy contracted in Q3, the second quarterly contraction this year. The OECD is projecting 2018 annual growth of 0.9%, while the IMF and FactSet Estimates forecasts show 1.1% growth. This will be followed by 0.9-1.0% growth in 2019.
    • China’s economic growth is projected to continue to slow in 2018 and 2019. Following 2017 growth of 6.9%, 2018 growth is expected to come in at 6.6%, followed by 2019 growth of 6.2-6.3%.
  2. I think EU should be broken up. inefficiency is good for stock markets or economies perhaps. Russia would keep Germany from going out of control.