Discussion in 'ETFs' started by ccwells, Dec 7, 2009.

  1. ccwells


    GLD has given back the gains made in 10 trading days in one trading day. Friday’s drop was brutal for gold. You have to remember that those 10 trading days were not flat trading days. The price those days were practically straight up a wall. Friday’s action is significant.

    I do expect a lower low for gold. I was expecting lower prices in my last post on 10/27/09. In that post, I stated that there were only three waves so far and was expecting another push down to complete the impulse wave to signal a turn. To say that the price did not push lower is an understatement! Those three waves down were only an ABC correction. I could not recommend buying when the price kept gapping on the open just about every other day. Gold will do that. Looking back, I wish I had. Hindsight is 20/20.

    That leads me to the next point concerning the Elliott Wave count. The drop from 12/3/09 did consist of a five-wave impulsive pattern. This is best seen when viewing the 15-minute chart. This indicates that the trend has potentially changed.

    The facts that may help confirm this case for a top being complete is the other evidence. First, there was an island reversal pattern with the open on 12/2/09 and 12/4/09.

    12/3/09 was a key reversal day. The price made an intraday high but closed down for the day. It also had an intraday lower low for that day also, all in the middle of the island reversal pattern.

    The gap down on 12/4/09 could very well be a breakaway gap. The reason I say that is the extremely high volume for that day. The 50-day average volume was 18.3 shares the day before, but the volume for that day was almost 80M shares traded. I believe there was a little distribution. What do you think?

    The critical horizontal support level is the low of 10/28/09. I expect the price to reach that level about as fast it rocketed up from it, maybe faster. The next support level below that is the 9/25/09 low.

    MACD and Slow Stochastic were extremely overbought. I would also expect the Slow Stochastic to be extremely oversold as well when the price starts falling with each day.
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  2. ccwells


    GLD has caused me much consternation with trying to determine the Elliott Wave count. My best interpretation is that 12/11/09 was the end of the first wave down. It looks like wave-a ended with the 12/16/09 high. That was also the 13 EMA, which proved to be resistance. Wave-b ended with the 12/22/09 low. Since then, wave-c has been moving the price higher.

    Wave-c will be a five-wave pattern and it seems to me that it needs to have one more push up. However, the price action today has caused me to doubt. The correction may be over if the price drops to lower levels from the current price level. Tomorrow or the next day could be critical for this ETF.

    In addition, an unfilled gap was formed with the open of 12/17/09. The price does not have to fill that gap, but wave-c would look better if it did.

    One thing that has caused me to believe that the downtrend is about to resume is the price action today and where it occurred. The price touched the horizontal resistance line shown on the chart. In addition, the price found resistance again with the 13 EMA.

    The 12/22/09 low for GLD is the critical price level that if broken, will signal the downtrend is about to pick up steam. The price could move higher if it opens up tomorrow and can break the 12/28/09 high. Therefore, the next couple of days are critical.
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  3. updates on uso? i want to short it thanks
  4. risky63


    try a 33 ma. 1 I use alot.
    look at usd/jpy and eur/usd and dxy.
    maybe 1 more wave to recent lows or 1060. level then it should rally. 1140-1180 level.
    won't know till all of next week when new pos. are taken by the real traders.
    maybe something totally not expected will happen.......usually the case. lets let the market tell us, not tell it.
    but its fun to gguessstimate.
  5. ccwells


    Shorting of OIH is looking better right now. USO has given me fits with the analysis. However, I will have a post on both later this afternoon.
  6. risky63


    hate to be a confuser, but I think crude hits 90 in next 60 days.
    natty makin nice base here, go long AT BREAKOUT.

    check out fxi for china play. (neg diverg.) if the break from this little base in our market sticks, it might drag fxi up with it.
    if we sell off next week and break down, it will break even more.

    seen copper..........don't see charts like this at tops ( although I think were close , some where in 2010) hasn't completed any formation yet you would see at a top. the oldman market cliche" bull markets are copper topped" held true 3 years ago. should start to do some selling in 3.50 level and that might be the start of a topping formation. so what i'm trying to say is it will take time to form it. atleast 6 months if not longer.

    check out mc. oscilator.....see what you see...........
    also the summ. index
  7. ccwells


    I am short oil and china. I may be wrong with oil. A few more days will allow me a little more clarity.

    I have been following FXP and FXI, but have not pulled the trigger yet.

    I agree that nat gas has bottomed. There should be a good pull back that will allow for excellent entry points for a long position.
  8. ccwells


    It looks like GLD is about to fall again. When viewing the weekly chart, you can see bearish Japanese Candlestick reversal patterns. There was an Evening Star and a Shooting Star with the weeks ending 11/27/09 and 12/4/09. The price dropped convincingly from those patterns.

    Since the recent low, the price has moved higher and retraced much of the decline. However, the price hit resistance on the daily chart with the 1/11/09 high. Although you cannot call the price action on that day as a Dark Cloud Cover Japanese Candlestick pattern, the price action was not showing strength. The price also came up just a little short of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is usually a common stopping point in a corrective bounce.

    My first target is the 100.00 level. The second target is the 96.00 level and third target is the 91.00 level.
  9. ccwells


    The price has fallen hard from the wave-2 high of 1/11/10. This decline has been impulsive, meaning no overlapping wave patterns. This decline has also fallen with several gaps down along the way.

    So far, this decline has only completed three waves down with the third wave being extended with impulsive five waves down. The wave-b low of wave 2 was broken today indicating that the decline has started.

    There is strong horizontal support at the 104.70 level. I look for the price to fall to that level before the first wave of wave three down is complete. When this five wave pattern is complete within the next day or two, look for a bounce to the 108.80 level.

    Ultimately, the price should fall to the 91.00 level. It could potentially fall to the 82.00 level before it is all over. That is a little bit of time away and we will worry about that when we get there.