A large bearish bet was just put up in the Sep options. The company has traded over 239,000 options today in the first 2 hours on total daily average option volume of 228,592. The biggest trade of the day accounts for 80,000 contracts. Someone bought 20,000 Sep 60/75/90 butterflies with the puts and paid 1.50 + 0.19 - 2*(0.35) = 0.99. Total outlay is 20000*100*$0.99 = $1,980,000. It's $2 million bet (max loss) to win $28 million (max gain). If you think the odds are better than the sum of the total area of positive pnl, then it's a bet with theoretical edge. Max gain occurs with GLD going to 75. You can see trades, prices, details, charts and pnl payouts on my blog here: http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/01/spdr-gold-shares-gld-bearish-butterfly.html