Can they be random when they are the result of intentional actions by people? They may be unpredictable some (or most) of the time, but that is not the same as random. Unpredictable does not imply irrational either. Irrational means there is no coherent reason for anyone to buy or sell in this fashion. But that is ridiculous - one can think of many perfectly rational reasons to both buy or sell stock at current prices and also at higher or lower prices too. Too many people on this thread are confusing the term "irrational" with "I am unable to predict this" or "I can't make sense of what is happening". The likelihood is that it is them and their way of thinking, not the market, that is irrational here.
That's my guess. I think they really want to defend the October low for psychological reasons. However, as the Depression unfolds and extends, will they keep trying to defend THIS level? CAN they? I don't think so. Much lower prices are to come, regardless of PPT interference... IMV.
So has the world. Technology, internet, globalization. 2008 is not the same world as 1988. Everything has changed. India & China are on their way to becoming world powers. The US is leading in innovation and services and technology. I don't think we can make the valuation comparison.
Once again, bad numbers on Retail, more than expected. Senior Dem. Say's NO BAIL OUT THIS YEAR FOR AUTO. Bad news on top of bad news and the market can only keep up with so much. The "Throwing in of the towel", the on big down move to scare the shit out of everyone is building. Many are still holding on to hope, that the market has bottom.
"Give me ONE rational explanation for Today's rally" Your expectations of market behaviour are irrational I am afraid. regards f9
I cant believe how crazy the S&P has been lately.....ive made and lost a ton of money. i was actually playing this UMOO.com game and made more money there then in the real market. Its some sort of fantasy stock trading game with the S&P 500 stocks only. I dont know but i think ill stay away from the markets for now and stick to fantasy trading with big cash prizes. (less risk, nice prizes) thats how i look at it.
Is tomorrow the day for hedge funds? If it is maybe they are hoping to change a couple investors minds about cashing out. Then they can keep playing through the new year. Like everyone is saying so much downward attention plus the proximity to previous lows could make it easy to start a rally.
I studied the chart last night, I firmly believed the rally was a manipulation, maybe by PPT, or maybe someone else who has a deep pocket. By my calculation, roughly 4 B dollars can manipulate the market. 4B can drive DJI up 2-300 points from 1pm to 2:30pm, and after that, speculators came in. If you have 40 billion dollar cash, you can play the market really bad.
That's the principle of the PPT... with enough money piled into the market (SP futures, specifically), you can stampede the herd.