=================== Little bear market rally; they uptick from time to time. Actually these bear rallys have been pretty shallow, in 2008; many bear rallys have retested monthly highs, then lower lows, lower highs, lower closes, plenty of panic selling. And price moves with bad weather, bad wars are much different, in a bear market; than price moves in wars or bad weather in a bull market[not that we are in a bull market...] I did go long gas; but it was @ Walmart today-$1.92,LOL . Gas could spike up to $4 or $8 on Israel hitting Iran, but high probability thats bearish for stocks.....
By saying this market is unique and will be unlike any previous bear markets, aren't YOU also making a forecast? What is truely irritating about this thread is the number of people who said the bounce was obvious in advance. Funny, because I don't remember reading any of this BEFORE IT HAPPENED (Actually I do but it was by a tiny minority here).
I have been negative on this market for years now, since I started posting here I was bearish on this market, the whole rally to 14k was built on monopoly money, I have been making a forecast and that forecast you already know was DOWN, Im not coming out yelling to sell the market now, I was saying sell the market quite some time ago.
If the market had dropped another 500 points on a failed retest, nobody would come to ET to start a "where is the logic?" thread. And that's the answer to your question.
Yup....that's most of it. Does it hold? Don't see any fundamental reason it does. The test of support in the futures compared to the breakthrough in cash might have something to do with it. IMO the difference probably caught quite a few traders off-guard.
This chart says it all. DOW has had exponential growth in the last 15 years. Dow 5000 - 6000 looks like a reasonable level based on valuation. For the buy and hold investor you are looking at a lost decade.
since everyone is bearish, even non-professionals. all bet on the downside, then suddenly the massive short squeeze. if you do not buy or cover, you dead! that is why bear market has lots of sharp rallies. I bought WCG at 6.3 and sold it at 9.8, can you imagine, I gained 50% in one hour! do not jump into an obvious side, if wrong, massive short squeeze or earthquake landslide!
To say the dow has a treble bottom is misleading. Certainly the daily charts show the potential for a treble to form but it is not active and therefore cannot be construed as a bullish sign. Until the pattern is activated. As for the comment about the action kicking off at 1 -that was when the 30yr auction results were announced.
totally agree. every monent is different and unique. someone compared it to 1929 or 2001, but whatever, things are evolving, the government is evolving, they may use different thinks to solve the problems, maybe quick remedy, ..... the market is different too, because of internet, almost every one is in the market... every moment is unique
Rational explanation: demand outstripped supply. Also, just because you can't make sense of the market does not make it irrational. Markets are perfectly rational at all times - if someone wants to buy, and they can't get the quantity they want at the current price, then the price goes up. What could be more rational than that? Markets only seem "irrational" when you start conjuring up "explanations" or "theories" on how the price *should* behave, rather than how it actually does behave. In such cases it is your theory that is irrational, not the market action.