Give me ONE rational explanation for Today's rally

Discussion in 'Trading' started by oktiri, Nov 13, 2008.

  1. --Job numbers were horrific
    --INTC drops guidance drastically
    -- Germany officially enters recession

    We go lower, -300
    THEN WHAT ? WE TEST THE LOWS SO WHAT ? the fact we didn't crash through, DOW gains 550 ?
    Where is the logic ?
  2. 1. Does it really matter?

    2. Do you really care?

    3. Were you short? :]
  3. Daal


    stock buying
  4. I'l repost what I wrote earlier:

    It seems all the econ data is priced in, as we saw in the prior two weeks. Bad sales numbers, housing data are expected. What matters more importantly is the outlook.

    These huge funds run by smart people realize that the feds' bailouts, stimulus packages, and rate cuts will create an environment for sustained, multi-year growth and are loading up before the future econ data cofirms this. Also, the extent of the so called "recession" is very shallow. Even 8% unemployment (if it should get that high) and even a 2% contraction in GDP isn't a big deal by historical standards.

    Finally, bear markets and recessions tend to be very brief and usually last no longer than 1-2 years. The recession tends to last just eight months. The reason why this so is because of fed intervention, free trade, and consumer spending.

    I could go on, but I feel more confident about being long now (even with a large loss) than ever before.
  5. einai


    The event was technical. It was a foregone conclusion that we would bounce off these lows again.

    Why should one draw _any_ inferences about a bottom being in from a foregone conclusion?

    Most of us would have agreed, 2 days ago, that when we hit those levels, we would bounce off them. So it is as if inferred one from the mere fact that we did hit those levels that a bottom was in.

    Which is as much as to say a priori that we cannot go below these levels.

    But the question of whether we can and do go below these levels will depend on actual events, not merely technical factors.

    But I agree that there will be momentum in the short term from this.

  6. Plunge protection team? :shrug:
  7. Priceless comedy, truly.

    I know everyone is getting used to these crazy VIX levels, but really, when it gets this high, shorting is suicidal. Better to be on the sidelines or, if one is in a daredevil mood, long.
    But short? Suicidal.
  8. Buyers were simply more aggressive than sellers those last two hours.... A melt up it what some call it.

    Bargain Hunters and covering shorts scrambling to take offers.

    Do I like it? ........ well..... I don't really care and if you can not switch your bias over a 10 to 15 min period you get steamed rolled in this environment.

    This is the new high vol environment and flexibility is the key.
  9. cszulc


    PPT is back in business.
  10. BadCo


    Too much company on the short side.
    #10     Nov 13, 2008