JSDA- Here is one real quick before I head off to my dayjob for another round of fun. MACD- Gave us great signals to buy (and to sell) in the past. RSI- I would use the RSI as a confirmation to the MACD signal. In this case, we saw an oversold condition on the last ideal entry point. ADX- The ADX shows us a weakening trend to 11.8 which tells me that this is just a normal correction during an up move. Trend lines- There are macro trend lines that I have not drawn that have been in place since 2005. You can actually do simple algebra to find the target price. This is a symetrical trend box with a top and bottom line. Algebra works well. Watch and your eyes will open. You can open up the larger chart on stockcharts.com to see where Im getting these figures. Its going to jump right out at you. (11.55X7.59)/4.15= 21.12 (actual high reached (22.86) Lets backtest a little further to see if my simple algebra worked: (7.99X4.15)/3.13= 10.59 (actual high reached 11.55) Conclusion- JSDA is another bubble-type junk stock that the rags, yahoo message board hooligans and CNBC touts try to fool us with. However, we are a little more intelligent then these blokes. We can actually perform simple algebra and realize that this stock goes beyond its fundamentals and is a manipulation in the making. Eventually when liquidity dries up, it will come crashing down like SUNW and PALM back during 2000. Until that time, we will be trading it and whoever believes in the fundamentals will be holding the bag. Did anyone see how some guy on here tried to fool me on why the stock jumped? Come on dudes, Im not the guy who hangs the bids/asks at the bucket shop. Plus I was born in NJ where all the CNBC touts were born. Your not going to fool me with this growth garbarge argument. Our Fibonacci retracement and gap analysis tells us that the pivot points will be between 16-18.65. Simple algebra tells me 15 ((7.59X22.86)/11.55=15.02). Lets assume that the touts will continue to manipulate this stock and my Elliott wave theory that we are in the 5th wave is correct. This assumes the retracement will be at the 16.04 level. Then we arrive at the next high of 48 dollars. (22.86X16.04)/7.59=$48 This stock reminds me so much of PALM in 2000. 14 times sales. a 120 P/E. Oh well, we'll trade this junk stock until it stops giving us smack, then we'll leave it on Broadway in NYC when all is said and done while we head back to our high rise. The "investors" who believed will be left on broadway too.
Ill get to TOA tonight. Remember though Im not a pro giving you an analysis. Just a guy in the triple A league trying to get a pro-slot. So take the analysis with two grains of salt.
I'll get to everyone soon. No worries. Just wanted to point out my call on this one. Im sure there are some stinky charts in this thread though. Im going to look at all of them over the weekend and create a scoreboard.
I made a call in another thread about GROW. Here is a cut/paste from that thread. I attached the master chart. Pay attention to the RSI and MACD. Look at where those indicators where when there was either a notable low or notable high. I included the prison bars and circled the indicators to make it easy. Currently, the RSI appears to be going over the 70 line. The MACD appears it might peak too. There could be more upside from here, however, in the past when those indicators were at notable highs there was down room to go. HOWEVER, sometimes these indicators show an overbought condition for months until they trend back down again. There is something else to pay attention to on this chart. The most important item. The signal to buy is when the 30 day EMA passes over the 15 day EMA. Notice how each time one passes the other it usually takes 2-3 months for them to cross again. Since these just passed on March 26th then the index might keep surging for another 2-3 months. Therefore the surest buy/sell signal is the 15/30 day emas. Buy when they are just about to cross, short when they are about to cross again. So my final thesis is that this is going straight to 54 before turning around with a few ebbs and flows on the way. Then short back down again. Its safe to get in at this level.
LEH- This will be a two part post. LEHMAN IS ON DEATHWATCH First, the death cross graph. Basically, when two moving averages cross each other you get a signal. Either the signal is the birth of a new trend or the death of the old. As you can see from the chart, a very reliable buy signal in the past has been when the 30 EMA crosses the 15 EMA. In 2005, this deathwatch period was relatively short lasting a month. In 2006, the deathwatch lasted from May until August. The good news is that when the these two averages have crossed there has been 6-12 months of pure upside. Looking at how that cup is shaping up, it might take a while for those averages to cross. (weeks/months) In the meantime, I suspect it might chop-chop like in 2006 forming the bottom of a huge cup/bowl like structure. I see a double bottom already put in. You can trade the chop-chop if indeed a floor is put in. Then again there might be something truly wrong where the trend has died and it could go lower. The safe way is to wait for the two averages to cross and the stock to be removed from deathwatch.
LEH- DEATHWATCH PART 2 In May 2006, there was a downturn. The OBV and A/D line turned down as expected confirming the trend. Then the lines started to turn up continuing until February. Notice, however, the lines remained somewhat flat and then there was a big dump in February of both indicators without any turn up. This is a bad sign of our friend Lehman. The trend up from 2006 until the present time might be questionable. We never regained the same credibility as we had in May of 2006 when these indicators were at their highs. Now lets focus on the ADX. The trend down from May until mid-June was strong. Then there was the bottoming which was weak. Then the trend up from Sept to November was strong. The trend from November to February was weak, a bad sign. Then from February to the present time the ADX is very strong. To make matters worse. The present selloff has occurred on heavier volume then the May 2006 selloff. My conclusion is that from the OBV, A/D and ADX lines alone, this is showing that the trend down WILL continue. These indicators can fool you at times though. A stock can trend higher with the indicators showing false signals, but these signals tell me Lehman may die.
LEH- Oscillator/Macd/FIB analysis All of these indicators are pointing to a turning point right now. The FIB line suggests that we are at the bottom right now. The MACD is at a perfect place to be. This is a chart that looks very bullish and a bounce seems imminent.
Thought I was done? Here we go again... two more charts... LEH- This is a scary chart. The cup and handle breakout appears to have completed itself at 86, but look! We see the head and shoulders. Then we see the breaking of the neck on high volume followed by a retracement and then another breaking of the neck with a retracement to the neck. I cant tell if it just made it over the neck or not this last day. Well if it stays below that neck, then our target price is 54 bucks. If it can recover over the neck, then it might have another chance at life. As long as it remains under the neck, the neck becomes the resistance. Above it will become the support.
LEH-Daily Ok you asked for daily, its simple. Just take two short term moving averages and carefully study the relationship. Notice the V-Bottom and the V-tops of each. This provides great signals. Basically, when the blue line starts heading for the red then you have a signal to buy or sell and daytrade/swingtrade. However, we have some problems with Lehman. The price stopped at the neckline and we cant be sure if it will head back over. If it bounces down off that neckline then Lehman might get to 54 bucks. That recent crossing of the two short term averages might be a false signal. Conclusion- There are problems with Lehman. You shouldnt touch him until the 15/30 EMA cross each other again. If the price stays below the neckline then thats a bearish sign. If the price can recover over then we might have a chance again. The OBV, AD and ADX tell me the selloff is true and not over. The head and shoulders tell me that we go lower. I say Lehman heads to 54 and to not touch him until those averages cross again.