GOOG- The ADX, A/D lines, MacD and the tight Bollinger Bands suggest a large move is imminent. We just completed a triple top reversal and I believe the target price has been reached. The large gap to the left has been filled. I believe that a volatility event is imminent. The chart is setting itself up for a big move. There is strong resistance at 440. I will have to say a breakout to the upside is going to occur in the next two weeks. I would say the price target is going to be 500 where we will test that top resistance. However, if I am wrong and the news is bad then we will test 363.
GRC Prior trend- The stock appeared to have started a typical 5 phase Elliott run starting in mid July. In late December, it appears there was a volatility event that made the stock jump about 10 points. Then there was another volatility event in early February that made the stock correct in a typical Elliott ABC pattern. It appears that Wave A and Wave B are now complete. Wave C maybe pending. Wilder's DMI (ADX)- This indicator tells us the strength of a move. The upwave in late December appears to be strong. However, the downwave in February appears to be strong, if not stronger. Wave B appears to be weak. You can see how the ADX line turned down when it completed the upward wave. Accum/Dist line- This demonstrates that there was strong accumulation in late December on the volatility event. However, the second volatility event demonstrates strong distribution indicating that the downward move was legitimate. Ultimate Oscillator- The ultimate oscillator is a great tool to recognize buy and sell points. It uses a combination of moving averages to generate its signals. If you look at the past history of the ultimate oscillator vs. the actual price, you can see that when the oscillator has hit a bottom and trending up then its time to buy. Similiarly, when the oscillator hits a top and starts trending down then its time to sell. The key words are *trending up* and *trending down*. This oscillator can remain flat and although it hits a certain price, its meaningless until the indicator starts moving up or down. It appears that the oscillator generated a buy signal in mid December then generated a sell signal right after the steep climb. Then it again generated a buy signal in mid February after the drop and now its generating a sell signal after it bounced off of the 70 line. Fibonacci retracement- The correction appears to have complied with Fibonacci retracement almost exactly. Elliott/Fibonacci theory- If the correction is an ABC wave, then C will be 1.618 times A and probably completed in a 5 wave cycle. The price target will then become 8 if this theory is correct. Bollinger Bands- The price at 32 has jumped above the top Bollinger Band. This is I dont believe to be substainable. 200 day moving average- This is providing the floor. Conclusion- My opinion is that the correction for this equity is not complete. The downward trend (Wave A) was particularly strong while the reaction rally (Wave B) was notably weak. This reaction rally may have been short covering and swing traders playing the bounce. It appears someone was using a Fibonacci retracement chart to play the bounce. The correction was too exact. The ultimate oscillator has given us some great buy/sell signals in the past for this equity. Actually, if you just used this oscillator without any other technical method then you would have been able to make yourself rich. This oscillator would have put you in before the large gap up and would have gotten you out before the large gap down. I have not used the ultimate oscillator in the past, however, I will be looking at it more closely seeing the great results. I just read about it a few a days ago. I'll have to say that GRC has more room to go down. A weak reaction rally, ULT giving us a sell signal, A/D line shows considerable distribution, and ADX confirms weakness of reaction rally. The Ultimate Oscillator has been our best signal for GRC when looking at its results in the past. It gave us buying opportunities and saved us from calamity. I would say to trade this according to the Ultimate Oscillator. Right now it bounced off of the 70 line indicating a sell signal. Get back in when the Oscillator makes a new low AND starts trending back up top. In reviewing the past trends for this equity, bottoms on the ULT are usually reached either right below the 50 line. Recently, the oscillator went below 30. I say sell or short from this point then wait for a signal to cover and go long.
PLT Prior trend- It appears a volatility event in May 2006 caused a sharp gap down. There was a small reaction rally from there and then the equity continued in its next wave down. The wave down was very strong as the ADX line suggests. However, the reaction wave back up from 14.68 has lacked conviction. The good news is that the ADX line has steadily increased October to the present time. The A/D line has also trended up, although, somewhat unconvincingly. The Fibonacci retracement has worked well so far and suggesting that we are either right now at the pivot point or maybe there is a slight room to go up to the 50% retracement line. We have a volatilty event coming up on May 1st (earnings call). In May 2005, this same earnings call caused the stock to gap down. In May 2006, this same earnings call also caused us to gap down. Now we are entering uncertain times with hostages in Iran and other uncertainty. . If you got in at 14.68 or higher, I say to take profits now. There might be some up-room from here, but its hard to predict the future. You have had two volatility events occur in May in previous years that caused a large gap down. The stock has retraced to the 61.8% line on Fibonacci. This reaction rally has been positive but somewhat unconvincing. The safe way would be to exit now. The gamblers way would be to keep on this ride. The RSI seems to be an ok indicator and it suggests that the equity is slightly oversold right now.
Here is something I like to do on occasion and thats reverse engineer the stocks on Yahoo's top gainers list. I like to know why and how I missed something. Here is the first one, very simple. JST- This is a downtrending equity that was basing at the Fibonacci retracement line. It was just a matter of time before it jumped up.
LTS Here is another top gainer I found on the AMEX. Can you tell the reason why it jumped? -ADX line- Everytime the ADX line has trended to 20 for this chart in the past, its a signal that a big move is about to happen. As the price went from 3.75 to the present time, the ADX line has trended downwards demonstrating that part of the trend down was weak. Since the trend is at its weakest point, the turning point is soon. -Ultimate Oscillator- The oscillator is showing that the price is not at an extreme point. Over 70 or under 50 would mark an extreme. - A/D line- The move down did not demonstrate significant distribution. This tells me that the move down was part of a normal correction and not part of a larger move. -Volume- Volume was at its lowest Friday signifying that a move is imminent. -Bollinger Bands- The width of the bands is very tight and this also demonstrates that a volatility move is likely. -Chart formation- I cant make it any more obvious on the chart. As the price moves out of the apex of the triangle, you can see the volume picking up. The target price is much higher from here. There is a 75% chance the price will move through the ceiling of the triangle and a 25% chance it will move through the floor. Right now this is a clear long. However, if it went through the bottom then it should be shorted. -Target- I will say the target price here will be around 3.5. Conclusion- Sharp volatility is imminent. There has to be a volatility event ahead. We saw a sharp uptick in volume and price on no particular news. Smart money rolling in to snap up shares before the news. This chart is setup like a coiled spring.
ICE Here is infamous ICE chart. I believe I posted this on another thread. Only certain indicators seem to work well here. Let me explain: MACD- This indicator is key to the trading of this stock. It has given us very reliable entry and exit points each time its crossed. RSI- Another highly reliable indicator to confirm the MACD's signal. ADX- The ADX is telling me that the recent downtrend in ICE is weakening and about to turn. Fibonacci retracement- Its bouncing and turning around on the first line. This was another signal to confirm the others that the time is ripe to buy the stock. Target price- If you flip the retracement, then you get a range of 137-149 as possible pivot points. I would pay attention to our highly reliable indicators that have gotten us in and out of ICE each time with our cash in hand. Pay attention to our trusty indicators and when our indicators say its time to sell, then thats what you do. RSI above the 90 line and MACD crossing signal to bail out. Conclusion- Exchange stocks are like tech bubble era companies like SUNW and PALM. Fundamentals dont matter with this junk. Go strictly by the indicators and dont let the two-bit pumper shills on CNBC sway your decision either way. I believe these indicators work the same way with other bubble stocks like NYX and OPBL. We'll buy em, sell em, and short em with our indicators and come out with our cash in hand while the people who actually believe in the fundamentals go broke.