SWC- This company is a wreck. The price was range bound in the mid-90s. Then it soared during the tech bubble and crashed along with it. Now its back to 12 dollars after making a few trips up and down and visiting different levels. The 20/50 cross about every few months. I cant seem to quantify the trading of the stock with any one particular theory. The price action seems nice, but its its a wild animal and seems to go against the theories that I embrace. I would have to pass on trading it and find a new stock. However, if pressed for a decision on where the price will be then I would have to say that its preparing for a big move to the upside. I dont want to give a price target because of how this trades. It seems too unpredictable. I dont know anything about the mining industry. Maybe this is how mining companies trade or this could be an indicator of greater problems with the company and management.
MU- This is part of the SOX index which is notoriously difficult to predict. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical. The trick to this stock is looking at it on a macro-level and using technical analysis over many years to see the big picture evolving. Looking at the data we see the following patterns emerging: 2/21/2003- Low of 7.52 4/8/2004- High of 17.35 4/22/2005- Low of 9.41 9/8/2006- High of 17.88 The pattern we see emerging over several years is that of an ascending triangle where we are seeing higher lows, but equal highs. The big picture I am seeing is this. On June 30th, 2000 the price closed at 90.81. Then the price came down hard from there and hit a low of 7.52 on 2/21/2003. We are now seeing a reversal to the upside in the making that has taken place over many years. The ascending triangle that has formed from 2003 to the present time is a reversal pattern due to the huge move that was made during the tech boom. Recently the price was at 11.25 right around March 12th and then hit a double bottom right at 11.22. Go long now at this point because it is going to make a new run for the 17s. Set a hard stop at 10.95 or a trailing stop as it goes up depending upon your risk management strategy. If it sinks below 11 then next stop is either 9 or 7. Point and figure chart says 4. The next test will be in the 17s. If it is able to get past 17, then the price target will be 23. Conclusion- 1. Go long now. 2. Set a stop right at 11. 3. If it goes through 11, next stop is 9 or 7 or 4. 4. If it goes up from here, then the future price target will be 17. 5. If it goes through 17, then it will probably make it to 23.
AMZN- This stock reached up over 100 during the tech boom and then went to the 5s in Sept 2001. Then it rallied to 59 dollars in Oct 2003. From then on its been setting lower highs and lower lows. While MU appears to me to be an ascending triangle on the macro level, AMZN appears to be a descending triangle. The chart is all over the place filled with large gaps. The 20/50 moving averages have been crossing indecsively as of late. We have a series of lower highs and lower lows being made on the chart. For some reason investors love to either buy this stock all at once or dump it all at once forming these large radical gaps. I say the chart is breaking down at this point and there will be a radical move to the downside in the future just like the past. This next radical move will be south of 25. I say to around 20 dollars. This is a very risky stock to trade. Actually, its more of a gamble then a trade. Broken chart, broken company, investors willing to either buy or sell at any given time creating large noticable gaps on the chart. 11 large noticable gaps since 2004. Investors are very indecisive. When the investors are indecisive like this then the bears usually win in the end. I say the stock is preparing for a big move to the downside. Maybe another huge selloff that will once again create a large noticable gap. It may make it to 40 or 41 from here, but I dont see it moving much past that before it gets back to selling off and gapping down. I wouldnt short it right now because of the unpredictable nature of this stock and its propensity for large gaps either way. However, I would go long if it were to make another large gap down and go under 25. It will probably rebound up from there and make a nice swing trade.
RIMM INCOMPLETE TRIPLE TOP REVERSAL OR CONTINUATION 1. Prior trend- The trend from July to November has been up. The price went from 61 dollars in June to 140 Mid November. 2. Three highs- Late November at 142, early January at 145 and 147 in late February. 3. Support break- Not yet Bollinger Bands- Tightening and setting up for big move in the future. Discussion- It appears this is a triple top. However, the support has not been broken. In looking at the company events, it shows that the earnings call is on April 11th. This will be a volatility event that either breaks the support or breaks the resistance. The triple top will thus become either a reversal or continuation pattern. I suspect that this will be a reversal pattern. If it is a reversal pattern, then we can arrive at the price target in a few ways: Method 1 119-(147-119)= 91 Method 2 Fibonacci retracement=94.11 Method 3 Gap in trading theory=between (85+100)/2=92.5 Method 4 Pre-October resistance=90 Resistance turns support therefore 90 target Method 5 Prior downtrend multiplied by golden number assuming price before volatility event (earnings call) remains at 135. 135-((90.53-61.03)X1.618)=86.8 If the triple top proves to be a continuation pattern then the price target will most likely be 163 assuming the price stays at 135 before the earnings call.
Look at GRC, PLT, SIM.....for fun and see what you see and let me know....I'll let you know what I have/had been doing....If you want.... GRC held the 200 day and now it's off...as an example