Gimme Some COIN! Or Not....

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Feb 13, 2008.

  1. volx

    volx

    Sadly this is one of the few positions that made me money this year.

    First time in January when I rode it from 4.79 to 13.50 (selling in increments). Back then I actually drove to their processing site in Woodbridge to see if it was for real. There was little evidence anything and no sign at all so I got very sceptical. Also at the time the stock was growing insane speed so I closed out. I loved trading it because it was completely uncorrelated to the market.

    I missed out on the entire ride to 16 (if I remember correctly over 17 intra day) in March but I continued watching the developments.

    Now I think the company is for real. They will be selling in Home Depot in the spring and in small garden centers around the country via agreement with Gro Group. I got back in from Sep-Oct 2008 and am looking at a profitable position.

    The stock got more correlated with the market and does not grow at a breakneck pace like it did in January. I actually like it as an investment.

    Hopefully this post doesn't jinx my luck with it. I would like your comments but based on facts, please.
     
    #31     Nov 7, 2008
  2. VOLX I owe you and the others a real reply & I will provide that wed. I am heading into the woods for a few days. I had the same experience when I went to China to hunt down some of the solar plays- lots of padlocked doors, makes you think.... The Chart is very favorable and with so few small caps working, the one's that are will receive lots of attention in short order.~ stoney
     
    #32     Nov 8, 2008
  3. Looking into this a bit more, it seems there is a convertible loan coming due in January, the terms of which require COIN to be above $6 or "a degree" of dilution occurs. As there does not appear to be a realistic hope that the note will be paid off as COIN has not yet shown itself to be a viable business, it appears a significant dilution is going to happen regardless.

    I apologize if it offends anyone, but to these old eyes, it looks exactly like a pump-and-dump going into their refinancing period.
     
    #33     Nov 8, 2008
  4. Thanks RAndomCapital, I bought COIN this week as it looks ready to bust up. I had wondered why there are practically NO institutes owning it. Maybe there's my answer.
     
    #34     Nov 8, 2008
  5. Mecro

    Mecro

    Considering that almost all your picks follow the pump & dump process, you are an obvious pumper.

    Plus, you don't know half of what you speak of, just shout off opinions as facts.
     
    #35     Nov 10, 2008
  6. Mecro I'm the nicest of guys and never put people down but you are clearly an idiot. The stocks I buy are 100% original not part of any fad or pump scheme I just bought ISIS yesterday. Aside from being the only person buying in the market how is that investment going to change because I tell you all about it? Think about how ill informed you sound- now look in the mirror and repeat after me... you can only hope and prey to be as on top of things as I am...

    Damn anyone can type on a comupter these days!

    Alright let's talk about Coin a bit... here in is a stock that has the " green " natural bent which led me down many a bad alley this year. MBLX comes to mind the invesnter of a biodegradable plastic as well as PURE- they stop the deadly bacteria that plagues sports teams MERC I belive is the name, the list goes on and on... these investments don't always work out despite how HIGH minded they are.

    In the case of COIN you are rooted in mother earth which is good... People need to eat. This is why Syngenta has performed well over the years- they do complex seeds and here with COIN we have rather good fert- the first completely soluble, high-nitrogen, organic liquid fertilizer. A generation 2 product Granular Turf Blend which will be available next spring, has a low carbon-nitrogen ratio, allowing for quick breakdown and response after application. This organic granular fertilizer will supposedly incorporate a "documented disease suppression" into the product --

    Accepting the fact that the stock must be over $6 heading into january... due to the above mentioned loan which I have NOT traced down... one could play this name here through the next rally with much confidence no?? Perhaps that is the greatest example of stonedinvesting right there, you tell a truth that is a negative and I can turn it into a positive! But will the stock react?

    I think so. Boy it looks super on a chart!!!! and so few stocks do. Two ways of playing it... wait out $5.75 to $6.00 support or buy the break out which would be $7.25... this stock is clearly goping to $9. That much I'm sure but most likely it will drop real fast after that so one must be nimble and I'm not entirely sure I want to play that game now... A year out? The numbers would indicate a $12 stock.

    Most of the recent surge in optimism is due to a new plant which is located in New Jersey... the trouble with putting a share dollar amount based off production is of course is all of that production sold? Management is definately hyping as many as 3 more of these plants in short order.... maybe that's where that loan comes in... you would think in this uncertain environment one would not be expanding at such a rate unless the demand was really there.

    As a new gardener my self this year, I can tell you as my little patch of grass rolls into a brook, my first questions was how do we kill the damn weeds without killing what's in the water down hill?? and the answer was we don't. You bend over and pick every weed and then they all come back sucka! But we did use natural and I think there is a demand for natural products to be used in the lawn and garden segment. Buying organic has taken a hit with disposable spending! This we must weigh against rosy sales predictions... a large retailer could go under that effects this segment but I doubt that Tractor Supply actually had great numbers and Home Depot is not going anywhere...

    What are we left with? A float of under 5 mil... danger danger Will Robinson! earnings that could be close to$1.80 a share next year! Hummmm. Will? According to the companies 2nd qtr webcast the mythical NJ facility (Woodbridge apparently) will be running at a moderate rate- converting 250 tons a day. And each 100 tons brings in $21,000 of revenue, so $52,500 revenue per day. Roughly $4,72 5,000 in revenue per quarter. back of the envelope stuff accounting for 40% expenses in conversion and some selliong and admisnistrative after that you get to approx $.45 in earnings per quarter. or $1.80.

    This is low ball one plant at half capacity. If the economy picks up and they follow through on opening 3 more and they go to full ramp at the NJ facility... well that's where the numbers get crazy and that's why COIN is holding up so well.

    At full capacity NJ will convert 500 tons that alone would get earnings close to $3 a share and if you put a PE on that choose one...
    14, 15, 16.... you would get a share price north of $40.

    What's to stop a bigger Miracle Gro type from stepping on them? Are their patents enforceable? and their technology really superior? or not?... cash on hand, insiders, there's more work to be done but just looking at the chart, I'm interested. I just wish more stocks were up so the focus would not be as bright on this one.

    Hope this helps. ~ stoney
     
    #36     Nov 12, 2008
  7. They just issued a common stock "dividend" - 15% dilution on November 17.
     
    #37     Nov 12, 2008
  8. volx

    volx

    Where did you see that, please?

    In separate news I am seeing on MarketWatch:

    (1) partnership with Archer Daniels Midland
    (2) company is giving presentation today at Paulson conference in NY
     
    #38     Nov 12, 2008
  9. Nice turn up at the end of the day!
    Unbelievable, up over 3% in the face of near 5% declines across the board. This has to be one of the strongest stocks in America now.


    The company had previously announcedthat their complete line of organic granular fertilizers will be available for retail purchase at hundreds of independent garden centers, nurseries and specialty stores across the country. Through a partnership with the co-operative organization of distributors called Gro Group, Inc., Converted Organics' products will be sold in every region of the contiguous United States.
    "Converted Organics' partnership with Gro Group will be instrumental in satisfying the nationwide consumer demand for our organic fertilizer products for the spring 2009 growing season," said Richard P. Aleo, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing for Converted Organics. "Our relationship with Gro Group Distributors provides Converted Organics with access to an important group of independent retailers and their extensive customer base."
    "Gro Group believes it is critical to meet our customers' increasing demands for quality organic fertilizer products, and we are confident that Converted Organics' all-natural granular fertilizers are the ideal option to offer homeowners for lawn and garden use," said Robert Siegel, Vice President of Merchandising for Gro Group, Inc. "We are pleased that our relationship with Converted Organics will enable us to satisfy this clearly-demonstrated need."
    Independent garden center owners recently viewed Converted Organics' products for the first time at Gro Group Regional Distributor trade shows held all over the country. The reaction to the new line was overwhelmingly positive.
    "There is no doubt in my mind that Converted Organics' fertilizers will be well-received by our garden center customers and consumers alike. In addition to providing high-quality organic fertilizer, Converted Organics has created phenomenal product packaging that plays to the interests of both groups," said John Bruntzel, Sales Manager of Gard'n-Wise(R) Distributors, Inc., a Gro Group Distributor located in Wichita, Kansas. "Another reason that Converted Organics' products will be a homerun with retailers in the mid-west is because the idea of 'going green' has exploded here over the past year, and the garden centers I have spoken to love the idea of organic fertilizer being made from recycled food waste."
    Purchase orders for Converted Organics' granular fertilizer products were written by individual garden centers, nurseries and specialty store representatives at the Regional Distributor shows over the last two months. The products will be shipped by Gro Group Distributors after the New Year, for the traditional early spring delivery of fertilizer. A store-finder application will be posted soon on www.convertedorganics.com that will display the nearest retail locations to anyone interested in purchasing Converted Organics' products. Customers will simply enter their zip code, and the closest retail location carrying Converted Organics' products will be listed, along with directions to the store.....

    I don't want to enter a million zip codes but we might do is enter some of the bigger areas in the midwest, west and east and get some feel for exactly how many contracts were written at that trade show.. The facts are a little murky here.

    As to the dividend yes that's why so many small investors have loaded up the boat. Three (3) shares of common stock will be given out for each twenty (20) shares of common stock outstanding, payable to all holders of record of the common stock on November 17, 2008.

    This dividend will be paid on approximately December 1, 2008 to all shareholders of record on November 17, 2008.

    "Converted Organics believes that the current price of its common stock does not reflect the long-term value of the Company, and that the recent turmoil in the world's capital markets has had a burdensome, negative impact on the shareholders of the Company,” said Edward J. Gildea, President of Converted Organics. “Therefore, the Board of Directors has authorized the Company to issue this special 15 percent dividend to our shareholders.”

    It is unclear how dillutive this will be to shareholders it's hardly a 2 for 1 split! & There are warrants being turned in that complicate the matter... net net I see this as favorable.
    ~stoney
     
    #39     Nov 13, 2008
  10. Everytime Stoney posts to this thread means that its a top. Stoney usually starts pumping these things when they get to a top. Look at his last post in March and then came this gigantic waterfall selloff dumping the stock down more then 70%. COIN is a scam company in jersey. A shack with a padlock on it. It doesnt exist and just trades. What do they sell? Fertilizer which means sh*t bwwaaaaaaa.
     
    #40     Nov 13, 2008