Does anyone here rigorously conduct mutual fund timing ala Gil Blake in "The New Market Wizards?" Here is an excerpt: "Blake is a mutual fund timer. Generally speaking, mutual fund timers attempt to enhance the yield return on a stock or bond fund by switching into a money market fund whenever conditions are deemed unfavorable. In Blake's case, he doesn't merely switch back and forth between a single mutual fund and a money market fund but also makes the addtional decision of which sector in a group of sector funds provides the best opportunity on a given day." I would like to find out if anyone is generating an incremental return w/ this. What fund family / broker do you use and do you recommend any online references? Thanks.
Mutual funds do not trend in such a smooth way anymore like they did in the 80's and 90's (especially upwards). So that would likely not work today.
I was also intrigued by the ideas presented by Blake. I didn't do mutual fund research but looked into ishares, small obscure sector ETF's etc. It needs further research but I think what he was doing with Mutual funds can now be easily done by ishares etc. with the added advantage of going short. Alas I never finished my research, but gave it up in favor of more short term swing trading with better returns.
ETF's are even worse for above strategy because of bid/ask spreads which are HUGE in your "small, obscure" example. Coupled with the less-trendiness of indexes/funds of late and sorry, but ain't gonna work either.
Jay Kaeppel published a highly successful fund switching strategy in July 1999. Here âs how to make it even juicier. http://store.traders.com/stoccomv116e.html
A lot of things that were *successful* up 'til 2000 ain't exactly as successful after. Good luck with most of those strategies.