This new interval is for the Hedge fund. One day we can join DB in swinging 75-100 contract positions. Son, Bride, and Ghost capital LLC.
Sorry for not posting an update Friday evening. I had other things to do. And the market was closed for the weekend anyway. Even so, if one understands and follows the rules, the trades are there whether one takes them or not. So those who want to go on about hindsight can save it. Your time will be better spent learning the rules. When we last tuned in, the demand line (or support line or microuptrendline or whatever one wants to call it who cares) had been broken (NFP) and we were out. A short is then taken at the first retracement. This turned out to be not worth much, but rules are rules. After the supply line is broken, a long is taken at the first retracement. This retracement takes place within the bar (see the green arrow). Trading off these sorts of retracements is more practical with an hourly interval largely because one has much more time to do something about it, even if he's not watching the chart (which is one of the chief purposes of using this interval in the first place). If one tries to take them off a 1m chart, he may as well trade off a 1t chart, which defeats the purpose of this thread. And if one needs to "see" the retracement, all he has to do is drop down to 30m bar interval for a moment. And if he's a little late, it doesn't matter. The dynamics of the retracement still apply. The last demand line is then broken yesterday evening and one prepares for the first retracement to short. That's done this morning. Whether or not this short works out remains to be seen, but that's the nature of any type of trading, particularly this one. So far then we have seven trades not counting the last short, 6 winners and 1 loser. Those who are interested can work out the P:L ratio themselves. An estimate is sufficient. A comment was made recently that an MA is preferable over these lines because there are so many of them whereas there is only one MA, and as we are no longer in the muscular uptrend that we were in early last week, the lines begin to proliferate. But this in itself provides a signal that we may be transitioning to trendlessness, or at least to a trend, such as this one, which technically is down but which penetrates the previous swing lows to a substantial degree (i.e., an increase in the maximum adverse excursion). And the appearance of "only one" MA is deceiving since the MA changes with every bar, whereas the supply/demand lines change only when there has been an underlying change in the balance between supply and demand, or buying pressure and selling pressure, or up and down, or however one wants to phrase it. Therefore, an increase in the number of lines prompts one to pay closer attention, whereas one can very nearly trade on autopilot in a strong, unbroken trend. This is called trade management. Again, these charts are continuous, and old info is cut off in order to avoid excessive scrunching. Therefore, if one is just now tuning in, scroll back through my previous charts to see how they flow. They are all numbered (see the link).
I'm somewhat surprised that no one has been able to guess the title of the next thread, if there is one (thread, that is).
The supply line drawn at the far right edge of the last chart was fanned slightly when price made a lower low. However, even that line has now been broken. The lower high followed by the higher low suggests upcoming chop, so one can either trade it or stand aside until price exits from it. Given the bar interval, I suggest standing aside, but, this is trader's choice, not a strict rule. This is the first instance of potential chop since the thread started, so we'll see what happens. I should also note that the last trade is now a loser, making 6 winners and 2 losers.
Depends on how picky one wants to be about his definition of "congestion". You have lower highs and lower lows, so, technically, you have a downtrend. But the more important consideration is how easy/difficult is it to trade? Does one really want to give back some or most or all of his gains by being repeatedly stopped out? Is he prepared to apply a very wide stop? For real? With his own money? Or is it wiser to wait for the kind of trending behavior we've seen since the beginning of the thread? Having said that, the fact that we've remained above the halfway level suggests that this will be resolved to the upside. Eventually.
My PERSONAL experience with TCs has been bad, unless I am in the money at the time the TC forms I CAN´T deal with the Adverse Excursion, so for now I will avoid the trades at this interval.