Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Jan 1, 2014.

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  1. Fluke

    Fluke

    I believe the mean has spoken -

    View attachment 145181
     
    #661     Apr 10, 2014
  2. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Yes and no. Not in the way I anticipated. Since the lower low and subsequent lower high toward the end of March, I've been trying to maintain an upper limit that would generate a parallel lower limit and a useable mean. This was fine until price kept making lower lows. Obviously this signaled a downtrend, as did the lower high, but the slope of the lower limit was so much more severe than the upper.

    After the lower low we made three days ago and given its regularity with the two previous swing lows, it appears that the lower limit is in charge and we must reverse the process and draw the upper limit in parallel to it. If this is done, then 80 represented not the mean but the upper limit of the channel. And it certainly did its job today either way since it launched the downmove.

    If all of this is correct, then the next downside goal becomes 3450, at least as of now. This line is pretty steep. The last swing low on the daily is at 3412.

    As Wyckoff says, judge the market by its own action.
     
    #662     Apr 10, 2014
  3. Fluke

    Fluke

    #663     Apr 10, 2014
  4. Something like this? EDIT - added second option which makes more sense to me. EDIT 2 - added something similar to what Fluke provided. I'm trying not to curve fit so I created a "reverse" trendline. I used the two lows and then chose the highest high between them (blue channel). I get 3455 with this one.
     
    #664     Apr 10, 2014
  5. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Yes. This makes all the activity above 3650 at the beginning of April "overbought", which makes sense.
     
    #665     Apr 10, 2014
  6. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Mine is like Fluke's. Begin with the swing lows, not the swing highs, as with your third try.
     
    #666     Apr 10, 2014
  7. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Why anyone would forego trading today is beyond me.
     
    #667     Apr 10, 2014
  8. I'm watching a pullback to 16200. All aboard.
     
    #668     Apr 10, 2014
  9. niko

    niko

    Just a small update, I guess all SLAyers rocked today :) . I managed to take a short around the 70 area during a stop in TX when I landed I was 70 points in the green. I guess I have to travel more often. Take care everyone and see you on monday.

    BTW anyone took the REV at the open?
     
    #669     Apr 10, 2014
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Fluke did.

    We're no longer speaking to him. :)
     
    #670     Apr 10, 2014
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