Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Jan 1, 2014.

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  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Defining pullbacks using "closes" may not do you much good. Depends on what hypothesis you're testing. Do you yet have one ready to go?
     
    #391     Mar 12, 2014
  2. Yes - its basically a reversal setup off of a previous day's high or low. Usually there is a test of the low after the automatic rally after a selling climax but sometimes there is a "V" bottom low instead. I have no plan to take these but I wonder how fast the higher low forms before it takes off again.
     
    #392     Mar 13, 2014
  3. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    This isn't so much a hypothesis as it is something to observe, a "to do". You can choose to ignore the V and focus on the higher low, which is a retracement. Choose your interval, e.g., 1m, determine how high the initial bounce is, how deep the retracement, how quickly and cleanly price resumes the upmove after the test. At that point, you've set up the preconditions for the hypothesis regarding entry and you can begin to look at exactly what entry point the market will sweep you into the trade. Will 1t be enough? Will 2pts be too many? How often is there an adverse incursion? How deep is it, if any? Instead of concerning yourself from the outset with the "close" of the bar or the "low" or "high" of the bar, you may find that none of that is particularly relevant.
     
    #393     Mar 13, 2014
  4. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    0740: Failure at 3720.
     
    #394     Mar 13, 2014
  5. niko

    niko

    0816 Hinge in the hourly? Nope, thinking it twice I think we have to go above 17,50 to get a hinge.
     
    #395     Mar 13, 2014
  6. slugar

    slugar

    if that's the case why not use a market order
     
    #396     Mar 13, 2014
  7. We've been inside the range defined by the 8:30 news bar. Buyers working on 3720 again.
     
    #397     Mar 13, 2014
  8. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    And we're now at 78.

    This is so hard.
     
    #398     Mar 13, 2014
  9. niko

    niko

    at 66 :)
     
    #399     Mar 13, 2014
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    And now 50. 10pts away from my projection.
     
    #400     Mar 13, 2014
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