Seems that there's a bit of wandering into the weeds, and given the inaction of the last couple of days, this is understandable. But it is under these conditions that the discipline of sticking to the rules becomes even more important. Rules, after all, aren't all that important during a cascade. But to participate in that cascade, it helps to have followed the rules up to the point where the cascade begins. So back to plain ol' straighforward SLA. No subtlety. No nuance. Just the basics. I won't go into the backstory again. There's been plenty of that in the last few posts. Suffice it to say that we've been pushing up against the trend channel and were able to follow the tail-end of that movement this morning with demand lines. These were broken at 0958. As long as they were in place, there was no need to do anything. No longs. No shorts. Once these lines are broken, then look for a short off the first retracement. The first short that's triggered occurs at the red dot. If the supply line is tightened, this trade is exited at 1018/19. An exit here enables the trader to get ready for the first long. However, it may also mean that he's exiting too soon. If he doesn't exit, he exits at 1025 when the original supply line is broken. If he did exit earlier, he can take the long in parentheses. That's the only long available since the next isn't triggered. When the demand line is broken, one then waits for a short setup, but there isn't one until 1042 and that isn't triggered. The next supply line is then broken, so we look for a long setup. The first one to be triggered, tho, doesn't come until 1052. And this one is scratched. At this point, we have a trading range, and if one is going to play it at all, he has to short the top and buy the bottom. Given that this is only three points wide, this isn't going to yield much profit. But it is possible to continue trading this until price breaks out of it and even make a small profit if one is rigid about following the rules for trading ranges. If he doesn't follow the rules, he will more likely have a series of small losses, if he finds any trades at all. So there is no trade at all until 1012, and there are no more than two after that until after 1100. Some other approach may do more with a 12pt range, but not this one. Today provided a good example of why it's important to avoid posts that call for an upside breakout or a sell day. These too often persuade the beginner to take trades he shouldn't be taking and to hang onto trades that he shouldn't be hanging on to. If one is going to follow this, then follow it. Don't trade just the general idea.
Well, it was not even a slow bleed. Loved the REVs twist. For those with a HFT mindset who just cant fold
I hadn't planned on posting any follow-up to the post two up, but we wound up getting a mini-cascade after all. Only 20pts. But 20pts is 20pts. Shortly after I posted the above chart, price "broke out" to the upside but then went nowhere, not even enough to trigger a long. Price then fell back into the range, and the first short was not triggered until the first red dot. If this one were missed, there was another at the second red dot. After that, it's merely a matter of trailing price down until the ever-tighter supply line is broken. Do you get out at the absolute bottom? No. But close enough.
For the ES fans everywhere: A month ago (2/8), I said that the ES would reach 1900. We came within 19pts of that today. Whether we actually make it to 1900 remains to be seen, but knowing that it would get here enabled one to avoid such things as "head and shoulders" distractions. Being "here", of course, does not mean that we can't go higher or that we can't change the angle of ascent into a steeper trading range. But, for now, here we are. The upper limit -- as you know if you've been following along -- is derived from the mean.
It's funny to see how Nq and ES are linked together.With these two you can see it.Before price collapse at 12:11 NQ was bumping at the mean of this small TC and at the same time ES was at the top of TR...
Good post Db , appropriate given the PA the last few days, I could feel myself drifting. I had thought late last night I need to refocus, and then I read this. Thanks