Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Jan 1, 2014.

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  1. niko

    niko

    Will do that then. Have a nice WE.
     
    #331     Feb 28, 2014
  2. Thanks DBP,

    I will start a journal this weekend. I'm curious if you would ever amend your hourly chart in the way I show below (to include the blue channel)?

    I discovered your thread on the other site after I first started reading Wyckoff's original course. Most everything I do is some perversion of what was written there and it has helped me immensely.
     
    #332     Feb 28, 2014
  3. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    After today, sure. However, there are problems with getting too into lines and channels. One can start focusing on the lines instead of price. At some point, we have to reverse, but traders don't seem to be ready to do that yet. But at least the "lines" have been drawn: either we make another attempt at a higher high, or we return to the bottom of this trading range.

    I really have no idea what NQ traders want. I know the ES is behind, and it isn't likely that the NQ will reverse before the ES reaches the upper limit of its TC. But markets do reverse before reaching what some would consider to be a "target". It isn't that the market is trying to put anything over on anybody; there just aren't any buyers left.

    It's a little early to be concerned about reversals, but you never know. May and June are the usual months for pullbacks. But May is two months away. It's going to be an interesting Spring.
     
    #333     Feb 28, 2014
  4. tupapa

    tupapa

    It isn't that the market is trying to put anything over on anybody; there just aren't any buyers left.


    Why do you say there aren´t any buyers left?


    It's a little early to be concerned about reversals, but you never know. May and June are the usual months for pullbacks. But May is two months away. It's going to be an interesting Spring.

    Why do you say its a little early to be concerned about reversals?

    On thursday you seemed to suggest the opposite?

    given that we came as close to the upper limit as price was overbought in December, and given that the ES came within a couple of points of its upper limit on Monday, I'm going to "hypothesize" that we're done here, and that we are packing our bags and loading up the car to visit the bottom of the larger trend channel from June. It's only 160pts away, so it's not like we're talking crash here, and there's always the possibility that traders may try for a new high. But given the lateral nature of these movements, I'm looking at a slightly higher probability of down.
     
    #334     Mar 2, 2014
  5. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    .
     
    #335     Mar 2, 2014
  6. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    .
     
    #336     Mar 3, 2014
  7. niko

    niko

    And the magical 50% does it again :)
     
    #337     Mar 3, 2014
  8. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    .
     
    #338     Mar 5, 2014
  9. niko

    niko

    Thanks again for helping us with a view of the forest.
     
    #339     Mar 5, 2014
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    .
     
    #340     Mar 5, 2014
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