With all due respect WDgann -- I thought that was what I was doing with my well over 1,000 posts here in the last 3 years Seriously though if you are interested in my experiences and would like to talk more just feel free to email me or read my prior posts to this message forum under ---> Commisso, J_Commisso, Publias and PubliasEnigma... PEACE and good-trading, Commisso
May I add a little salt here? Even when you have a system with a positive expectancy you are going to lose in the long run. The positive side: this run may last longer than you live or care to trade. Source:William Gallacher "Winner Take All" and Nassim Taleb "Fooled by Randomness". Or think about series of winning/losing trades Theory? Look at the rate Hedge Funds do disappear. Have fun Bernd Kuerbs
BKuerbs, Those two books are, in my opinion, not that great. A lot of traders swear they are great but I didn't like either one of them and here is why. First, Gallacher talks down TA throughout the book (which, to an extent, I agree with) and then suddenly later in the book is using TA for his own system, albeit a newly revised one. He does a good job shooting down Williams, though. Also, a lot of his examples, such as Hog contracts, were very illiquid markets to begin with. As far as I'm concerned, he's just another person touting his own unique system. Taleb, in his Randomness book, begins at the very beginning by stating he did not do much research. He uses long words were short ones would have been great. He rambles on and on. The entire book, in my opinion, is an interesting read but not one firmly rooted in research. The point is that there are people making money successfully and consistently in the market. If they do so for 30 years and then die and someone wants to call that random, well then I hope my success is random, too. Just my opinion.
Well here you go, here is one post from our brother Aphex that pretty muh sums me up "J_Commisso (aka Yoga Master) Right, and you're supposed to be some kind of ES trading master, correct? Because all that meditation at night allows you to "feel the force" of the market the next day. Do you light red and green candles in your room with wicks on both ends?" Seriously though if you want to talk then maybe we can get up in chat room sometime or on yahoo IM... PEACE and good trading, Commisso
J_Commisso, Do I detect new cheap shots Commisso? Don't make me mess up your rock garden! PEACE and good trading.
LOL... OK...*taking notes* feel the force... candles with read and green light... Which light goes left and which light is right.. Oh... do I face North or East? Neuro-linguistic myself to "I am Commisso... I am Commisso... I am Commisso... I am Commisso" {10 min. later} "... I am Aphie... I am Aphie... !!!!" Dou!!!
No Aphex that was not a dig at all -- I just found it quite comical -- so I figured I would share it I mean no ill-will towards you Aphie. Like I said in a previous post, you have truly become one of my favorite posters around here. Your posts are simply too comical and thoroughly amusing not to be appreciated! I salute you Aphex Keep up the great posts... PEACE and goooood-trading Your fan commisso!
Did you read the chapter about systems by Gallacher careful enough? Do you know anyone that is consistently making money for 30 years? The wellknown names like Williams etc. all have their drawdowns. And I just looked at some numbers published by Diaz, how many CTAs are still in business after ten years. And there are a lot of articles to be found in the internet about Hedge Funds. I think the terms random, efficient, exploitable(profitable) should be treated as different and not implying each other. If it is random it does not necessarily mean it can't be exploited. And I'm not sure the markets are random. All I think if you have a system, like the break-out system used by Richard Dennis (look at his drawdowns), you need money, persistence and some luck to be successful. Regards Bernd Kuerbs