Hello Again. In my dark moments of the last 2 and a half Months with tremendous limited watch in Grains Markets but with some usual Futures Positions open ( Wheat Spreads ), when make a small time stop here and watched some Grains News in the Internet, i find something i believe very Rare ( With my small opinion ). First, i was find this: http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3aca540d013b437f848504eb , second this: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/...-into-2012-us-drought-outlier-forecasts-15043 , and finally, third, the, GFDL Expiremental Forecast: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/SI_Exp_Predictions . You can navigate it... Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Hello Again. The only thing relative with them, that we can make, is, to wait until their next Prediction. ( I believe into the January 2013 will release a New Prediction. ) Also, patience. That kind of Expiremental Forecast/s is/are not so easy. Need, above all Human Resources ( Scientists ), then Technical Resources, like special Computers for huge Data Processing, and then Money Resources for such Projects. Also, someone get a Forecast. How, someone will be sure, that this Forecast will be at least in 90 % correct into to their Prediction ? For example, a deviation of 10% in the USDA December 2012 U.S.A Wheat Production, of 2269 Million Bushels, meaning 226.9 Million Bushels. 226.9 Million Bushels is a very huge number with my small opinion. And that is a 10% only. Of course all these are very difficult, but one is sure. Agriculture & Stockbreeding are top Sciences. Best Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Hi George. Thank you for replying. Whatever the weather prediction models, the crop yield forecast models (...), there always is uncertainty left on the final crop production level. I think that's exciting. Besides, I have come to think that trading and market research/market anlysis should be decoupled activities. I mean my background is ag market research, and I am sliding towards trading, now. And, I feel there are many times when fundamental news regarding crops are useless for trading. They just are "hurdles" sometimes preventing from entering/solding out a position. In my opinion (today), a trader has to: - filter out much of the market information that is released every single day - develop a real trading skill, that is an ability to detect trading opportunities (entry and undwinding points). Many, times I read on this forum, assertions such as "you shoud better wait 3 months to get long ...". I am pretty sure a good ag trader can find out bunch of trading opportunities in such a lapse time. best @tallent_e
You are right, Tallent. I was concerned the other day because nobody answered your WASDE thread with some really good questions. But I guess most of us here are just traders using charts, DOMs, Market Profile, COT, spread levels, correlation between commodities...We don't necessarily know the story behind."Invest first, investigate later"
Thank you for your input TraDaTor. Reading the threads at EliteTrader has been insightful for me. It seems there is a(n almost) strict separation between market analysis and market trading. This really departs from I was thinking up to recently, that is market analysts: 1) provide valuable market information as input for traders to grow (themselves) their trading ideas 2) are heard/believed by traders. But, this is not the way things work! Best, @tallent_e
Hello Again. The Issue of the Seasonal Forecasts of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ) can not get out of my mind. Quite ofter, i visit some Internet Pages of it. Now, a little minutes ago i find from here: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/SI_Exp_Predictions , this here: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/gfdl-real-time-seasonal-forecasts . Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.