Man, what the frig is up with this market?! I guess because it's gold colored, wheat is going to be 1:1 priced with the shiny metal. I'm getting reamed shorting this puppy! When will the agony stop???
You should change your username. There's that concept of self fulfilling prophecy. It's impossible to call a top. You'll be right eventually, but can you stay liquid in the meantime.
You are taking very aggressive entries. This strategy requires deep pockets, and you have to cut and run some (unknown) number of times until you pick the top. It usually pays off, but never forget the basics of what you are doing. Don't let a loser run away on you, or the expectation may turn negative. Good luck with it; fwiw I'm watching it too, but I haven't seen the weakness I like yet. If it opens lower tomorrow I think I'll use the five minute entry deal to get a little short; maybe an island top? And drink lots of water; wheat up the ass and all.
*Wheat sales are fast outpacing the historic average just four months into the marketing year, as buyers scramble to lock down supplies. World wheat inventories are headed for the lowest level in nearly three decades. "If we continue to sell at the pace that we've sold over the last three weeks, we would basically sell all the wheat the USDA thinks we're going to sell all year," Feltes said.* http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071001/commodities_review.html?.v=4 ************ iow, unless the dollar changes course quickly it will be hard for wheat to correct anytime soon...so hold on to your horses !!!
So if properly capitalized then shorting a top is OK? I'm partially covered with call options so the reaming is more like one you would get at Yuma County lockup as opposed to the full service violation in San Quintin D-Block.
Yes, I pleasantly considered that... P.S. Who changed the thread title? It was PG-13 at best. Nanny-state?