Getting Beat Up Here

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, May 1, 2007.

  1. I knew I should have stuck with my gut thought (if there is such a thing) two weeks ago.

    Re-opening positions went against everything I had been anticipating for months.

    The longer those things failed to materialize, the less I trusted my original sentiment.

    And by the way, ADM for the win! With a 6% intraday drop.

    What a dog. Three months of holding and a slight loss.

    I will not second guess my original thoughts, as long as they were arrived at deliberatively!
  2. Can you clarify what your positions were before and are now? Thanks.

    Looks like tons of indecisions and reduced buying power by whoever has been buying endlessly...I guess mak and stock_turder got their HELOC's cut off?! :p
  3. Take this as constructive, but you seem to trade very emotionally. One day you're wildly-bullish with a "new economy" slant, only to reverse the next.
  4. Well, I went back in on a much more focused basis, with less cash invested.

    But you're right in the sense that wavering on sentiment/feel will only hamper one's performance.

    At least I scaled way back, which substantially minimized my losses yesterday and today.
  5. I was in many positions; about 12 to 15, from Aetna to Goodyear to Valero.

    I went back in with a few select plays, and got injured on two of them (JOYG and ADM).
  6. Mvic


    By Lo, most of the stuff you post (thanks) is macro in nature. If that is what you re trading off you need to be looking at the weekly charts not the daily or X minute charts. You also need to give yourself wiggle room (usually translates to decreased position size) as macro events take time to play out. Finally you need to try and find good hedges that will work when your macro theme is not panning out. I know, easier said than done but certainly possible. You might want to look at options so you can buy yourself some time and define your risk. Lastly, if you are playing macro themes look at all components of the macro play to see which offer the best RR. A good strategy for you might be to have a macro position or two using long dated options (which also allow you to be long volatility) and then day trade futures against your position. It will keep you in the action which is where you seem to like to be and will also give your broader strategy time to play out. Right now the thing that is hurting you the most is probably a mismatch between your time horizon and your execution of your strategy.
  7. Mvic, on a serious note, you read my position and strategy, and consequent problems perfectly.

    I will say this - My account is not volatile. I don't get huge swings or losses. For me, that's a good thing.
  8. If you look back at the chart from around 2005, you will see a similiar situation to the one we have today. There was a cup followed by a more sharper/shorter correction and then that followed a period of upwards momentum until 2006. The only difference is that the correction back then wasnt so sharp or pronounced. None the less, the charts appear similiar at least in shape, but not in duration or depth.

    So we have two choices at the present moment.

    1. The indexes are going to pull back for a little bit more before advancing in a convincing bullish manner.


    2. The indexes will drop from here in the typical "May correction" probably down 10%.

    Im betting on #1 and for history to repeat itself. Small pullback/sideways action lasting a week or so and then forward march until the next 10% correction.
  9. Buy and hold is the way to go most of the time

    you buy quality stocks using the methods outlined in my early threads and hold on to them for a long time

    Thats how I am up nearly 30% Since late may with my original positions as well as up on other positions as well. GS at 200, Goog at 450 and so on.

    Just have to be patient and dont buy crap. Markets go up and down but the cream rises to the top.
  10. This is a point I must disagree with you strongly. Buying and holding the *right* stocks will yield great results, but just what is the right stock?

    Lets take Liz for example. LIZ lost months of gains overnight. Lets VSE. If you got in last year a month after it IPOed, you are now seeing red and probably will for a long time. What about the solar stocks that I was so bullish about? Dumped down so quick. Remember the Yahoo pumpers on here and that dumped quick.

    Of course, holding the right stocks is the way to go, but which ones are the right ones. There are lots of stocks out there that appear good on the outside, but then they throw up months of gains in hours on one bad call.

    What about the mortgage lenders and home builders? Those things wrecked pretty good. KBHome seemed like a good company to buy/hold back in 2004-2005, but then those gains were given back quick.

    Now lets talk about the "good stocks" like AIG and IBM. If you got in at their highs a year or so ago, you would be just breaking even right now.

    Buy and hold is good as long as you get in at the start of trend and then exit when the trend appears toppy.

    As for you being up 30%, there are quite a few mutual funds that have you beat. In fact, just throwing some cash in the midcap etfs at the right time would have yielded better results.
    #10     May 1, 2007