Getting a clue on next day

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by acrary, Sep 19, 2003.

  1. man

    man

    my statistics indicate that today's market should favour the long side.

    with 59% chance we see a positive day with an expected return of eight times of the average. statistics are based on a statistically very sound sample.

    if we gap significantly down, that figures would further increase.


    peace
     
    #11     Sep 25, 2003
  2. man

    man

    quite a hit yesterday. model insists on longs today as well ...


    peace
     
    #12     Sep 26, 2003
  3. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Perhaps you should take another look at your model . . .
     
    #13     Sep 26, 2003
  4. man

    man

    it is funny. posting positive trades does not attract any attention - negatives find immediate response. no offense intended but your post is not the most profound i ever read ... perhaps.


    peace
     
    #14     Sep 26, 2003
  5. Foz

    Foz

    Don't take it personally. It is just that the message "trading is hard and other people have losses, too" is more welcome than "trading is easy and everyone but you is making money".
     
    #15     Sep 26, 2003
  6. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    It's not intended to be "profound". I'm suggesting that if your model has begun to provide poor signals, you may want to re-evaluate it. Markets change.

    As for responding to positive trades, if everything's going right, there's nothing to fix. On the other hand, if signals or trades begin to go wrong . . .
     
    #16     Sep 26, 2003
  7. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Actually, Wednesday and Thursday were relatively easy using my strategies. That's why I suggested that he take another look at his model. If he's satisfied with it, great.
     
    #17     Sep 26, 2003
  8. Technically I have an up day also , but what do I know . It is actually hilarious to see how someone think that she can classify up or down day by 10:00 . amazing..
     
    #18     Sep 26, 2003
  9. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Since you don't know the details of his model, you're hardly in a position to say one way or the other.
     
    #19     Sep 26, 2003
  10. man

    man

    sorry. shouldn't have taken it personal. problem with 65% hitRatio is the other 35% ... but i agree one must always be willing to fix if something does not work. on the other hand you better not panic at first blow when you are boxing ...


    peace
     
    #20     Sep 29, 2003