Yesterday I ended the day with a large long position in ES. After a nice up move like we had I like to hold overnite to see if it's likely to keep going in the same direction. My models indicated today wasn't likely to have a large range or continue in yesterday's direction. They basically said to step aside for today and forget about trading. They didn't help me figure out what to do with my position so I did a little test with Tradestation. I have 20 years of daily data in the SP so I can check just about any day against a pattern. What I did was look at the pattern for the day (using daily data) and try to see if it had any bias. I used 3 identifiers that I thought described yesterday. 1). The close was greater than any of the past 20 days. 2). The range was more than 1.75 times larger than the previous day. 3). The open was lower than the close from 2 days ago. I tested the pattern against the past 20 years. I found 62 days that matched. Of the days 63% were down days and the average down day was 60% greater than a up day. Using this info. I decided to exit my long position in overnite trading. So far it looks like it was a pretty good decision. I've used the pattern matching quite a few times over the past 5 years and found it to be worth taking a look at when I need a clue.