Lots of talk about economics, but no talk about the account deficit problem. I believe that the crash is inevitable, but hasn't it always been? If we can find a way out of this account deficit problem can't we once again return to the boom? I don't really think itâs possible to fix the current account deficit without a war or something, but there could be another way, Iâm not an economist, or educated enough to figure out a solution. Does anyone here understand this part of the problem enough to offer a solution? thx 8s
I apologize in advance for the glibness of this post - light on details but heavy on sentiment - for I had one too many black & tans light night. This will be one of the bloodies Marches we've seen in a long time. There still is no clarity on the extent of losses on balance sheets from toxic debt - not even after two quarters of massive write-downs....housing market decaying further....consumer sentiment dropping fast (consumer purchases were up slightly because gas and groceries cost much more, not because consumers are buying more)...and most importantly, money isn't circulating as banks hunker down and refuse to make loans - lbo money has dried up, to Welcome to the Ides of March, Latin Idus Martiae; where the markets will be assassinated.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120433882809904921.html?mod=us_business_whats_news http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXHDe1nkJg.c&refer=home
Bylo, I want to commend you for being able to use your "eye-sight" instead of you "mind-sight". It is what separates the successful trader from the also rans. I had a go short signal on Thursday and it was hard to take with all the general public consensus suggesting the other way.....good work bylo.
bylo, i think i remember telling many bulls last fall including YOU about being too bullish, but i'm very happy to see you have been enlightened . you have made some good points about the negative things that are taking place, but it also depends on how agressive the fed. wants to be on buying s&p500 futures contracts. bgp
been short for weeks Something change? The its-all-up-from-here logic left us on 11/9 and the gov'mnt will not left us drift into a nasty recession. They have too much money. They can just print away.
this isn't going to help matters... http://www.reuters.com/article/worl...eedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&rpc=22&sp=true Chavez sends tanks to Colombia border in dispute CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela President Hugo Chavez ordered tank battalions to the Colombian border and mobilized warplanes on Sunday after Colombian troops struck inside Ecuador in an attack on rebels. He also ordered the shutting of Venezuela's embassy in Colombia and the withdrawal of all diplomatic staff in the dispute, warning Colombia's actions could spark a war in South America. "Mr. Defense Minister, move me 10 battalions to the frontier with Colombia immediately, tank battalions," Chavez said on his weekly TV show. "The air force should mobilize. We do not want war." Colombia's military said on Saturday troops had killed Raul Reyes, a leader of Marxist FARC rebels, during an attack on a jungle camp in Ecuador in a severe blow to Latin America's oldest guerrilla insurgency. The operation included air strikes and fighting with rebels across the frontier. On Saturday, the anti-U.S. Chavez warned Colombia against doing the same in Venezuela because he would interpret it as a "cause for war." On Sunday, he said he would send Russian-made fighter jets into U.S. ally Colombia if its troops struck in Venezuela. The leftist, anti-U.S. Chavez has been in a diplomatic dispute with his ideological opposite, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, for months because of the Venezuelan's mediation with FARC rebels over their hostages. Uribe has accused Chavez of using the mediation to meddle in Colombian affairs. On Sunday, Chavez accused Uribe of lying about the details of the operation that killed the rebel in Ecuador, where the leftist government of President Rafael Correa is a close Venezuelan ally. He called it a "cowardly assassination" of a "good revolutionary." Ecuador has withdrawn its ambassador in protest and also questioned if Uribe lied when he initially explained to his southern neighbor that the strike was in response to fire from rebels across the border against Colombian troops. "He (Uribe) is a criminal," Chavez said. "Not only is he a liar, a mafia boss, a paramilitary who leads a narco-government and leads a government that is a lackey of the United States ... he leads a band of criminals from his palace." (Reporting by Saul Hudson; Editing by Bill Trott)
I got lucky I waited for uncle Ben to wrap it up, then bought the sds . Wonder what this week will bring. I don't like what I see.... Its bad out there..very bad. I lost faith in the FED
Asia Stocks Savaged as Dollar Plumbs New Depths By REUTERS Published: March 2, 2008 Filed at 11:04 p.m. ET Skip to next paragraph Reuters HONG KONG (Reuters) - The dollar's slide deepened to a 3-year low against the yen on Monday, and Asian stocks fell, with Tokyo's Nikkei shedding 4 percent, burdened by growing fears about a U.S. recession and more writedowns in the financial sector. The dollar fell as low as 73.531 <.DXY> against a basket of six major currencies, taking it to the lowest since the index was started in 1973. It ploughed below 103 yen as Wall Street's sell-off on Friday prompted an unwinding of the carry trade, where investors borrow currencies with a low yield -- like the Japanese yen -- to buy high interest rate currencies. As investors grew even more risk averse, they sought safety in government bonds and gold, which hit another record high of $980.75 an ounce in Asian trade. "Gold has more room to rise considering that its pace of rise has been slower relative to other commodities. Gold should reach $1,000 very soon," said Tatsuo Kageyama, an analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management in Tokyo. Shares in Asia slid across the board, tracking U.S. indexes, which have fallen four months in a row, the longest string of monthly losses for the Dow <.DJI> and S&P 500 <.SPX> since 2002. Japan's Nikkei average stock price index <.N225> was down 4 percent by 0300 GMT. "With a huge drop in U.S. stocks and the sharply firmer yen, the fall can't be helped. Domestic trading factors can no longer calm the market," said Yutaka Miura, deputy manager of the equity information department at Shinko Securities. "Depending on the outcome of economic indicators from now on, we may have to brace ourselves for the possibility of the Nikkei breaking below the recent low hit in January." Asian stocks outside Japan, gauged by MSCI's index <.MIAPJ0000PUS>, were down 2.8 percent, with the main Sydney <.AXJO>, Hong Kong <.HSI> and Seoul <.KS11> indices all off about 3 percent. TREASURED With stocks seeing red, investors scrambled to buy sovereign debt, squeezing the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes down to 1.58 percent, the lowest since early 2004. But the appetite for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) was kept in check as dealers awaited an auction of 10-year JGBs on Tuesday. "Price movements in JGBs are relatively stable compared with those stocks and U.S. Treasuries because the 10-year bond auction is just ahead," said Makoto Yamashita, chief JGB strategist at Lehman Brothers. March 10-year futures were up 0.21 point at 138.68, after reaching as high as 138.74, their highest since January 23. Crude oil prices hovered just below an all-time high of $103.05, supported by the decline in the U.S. dollar and expectations oil cartel OPEC would leave its output unchanged. BERNANKE SNEEZES Global investors have been glued to their screens for months for any sign that the U.S. economic malaise is spreading around the world, with a falling dollar undermining Asia's exports and pushing prices for dollar-denominated commodities ever higher. Last week's testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in which he warned some small U.S. banks could fail and signaled more rate cuts might be needed, cemented the view the world's top economy is heading for a recession. The latest round of weak U.S. economic data added to those fears on Friday, while a record loss at insurer American International Group Inc <AIG.N> fuelled worries that there are more writedowns to come. Bernanke is due to speak again on Tuesday and analysts assume he will reiterate his willingness to cut rates even in the face of rising inflation.