This was 7 months ago. Don't get the hell out now unless you're still in commodities, commodity stocks, or about 70% of financials, that still have further to fall. I have no idea where the bottom will be, and no one else does, either. However, despite my caution due to my belief that any recovery will be incredibly slow, belabored and anemic, I am committed to parlaying cash into small, highly selective positions at spooz under 850.
Excellent Call....Good Work.... ................................................... What is shaping up are country by country opportunities.... When one market is down over 70%...40%....etc....ie China, etc... Now would be a time to start averaging indices selected country by country......ie Templeton approach.... Fantastic will be the day when direct access and very low commissions are made available by each market place.... This could be a once in a lifetime opportunity....averaging over the next three year process....
Of course we always have to "figure it out on the fly", but I suspect the market has another 50% to fall.... bottom no earlier than Summer of '09, and more likely '10 or later.. I'm going to try to wait on buying in until the emerging markets are down 90%.
One of the great calls on ET. You were a tiny bit early, but much better than the average non-permabears, who were screaming "It won't be that bad..." Good trading to all.