2-28-2008 Get out. Get he hell out of the market and go short. Forget volatility and trading. Just get out. There will be a vicious, swift correction in weeks, not months, as institutional finally lose any faith that the U.S. Central Bank can't deal with the problems we have. The Federal Reserve is impotent, and it will take a colonic cleansing of bad debt, wiping balance sheets clean, and bankrupting many companies, before clarity can return, and real economic growth can be possible again. You will be able to buy equities at much cheaper levels once this process runs its course - probably in 9 to 14 months. Stamp this date and see where we are 3 months from now. I'm not leaving ET if I'm wrong (although I'm highly confident I'm right), but I'll definitely not avoid this thread, and I'll eat crow in front of all if I am. The market has given a final chance to get out of your long positions at non-catastrophic levels. Seize the opportunity to do so. * Brazilian Real strengthens a ninth straight day amidst US dollar collapse * Fed Says Small Banks May Fail * Yen Rises to Highest in Almost Three Years * Ogasawara Sees Further Declines by Dollar Against Euro * Feldstein Says Economy Hit `Plateau,' Recession Likely * S&P's Wyss Says Economic Reports Point to `Nasty Story' * McKay Says Japan Headed for Slowdown * Asian Stocks Decline on U.S. Economic Growth Concern; Toyota, Samsung Drop * U.S. Economy Grew 0.6% in Fourth Quarter, Less Than Economists Estimated * Stocks in U.S. Tumble After GDP Trails Economists' Forecasts; Sprint Falls * Sprint Posts $29.5 Billion Loss, Eliminates Dividend, Borrows $2.5 Billion * MF Global Says `Unauthorized' Wheat Futures Trades May Cost $141.5 Million * Dollar Falls to Record Low Against Euro for Third Day on Weakening Economy * Goldman Names Four Executives to Run Sales and Trading, Top Revenue Unit * Freddie Mac Has Record $2.45 Billion Loss on Housing, Credit-Market Slump * Peloton Sells Assets After Mortgage-Related Securities Losses, People Say * Treasuries Gain as Economy Expands Less Than Forecast, Jobless Claims Rise * Rhodia Falls Most in Four Years as Chemical Maker Scraps Margin Forecast * Bernanke's Drive to Avert Recession Fuels Concern Inflation Will Speed Up * Lampert Invokes Eli Manning, Tells Shareholders of Sears to Keep the Faith * Dell Recovery Plan Falters as Wal-Mart, Staples Shoppers Let PCs Languish * Japan's Production Falls Twice as Much as Expected as U.S. Slump Deepens * Bernanke Signals Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates Even as Inflation Accelerates * Dollar Falls to Record Low of $1.51 per Euro on Fed Rate-Reduction Outlook * Japanese Stocks Fall After Yen Strengthens Against Dollar; Toyota Declines * A Highflier Loses Altitude as Googleâs Clicks Go Flat * Nortel Posts Loss and Plans More Job Cuts * Citigroup Taps Old Lane's Leach as Chief Risk Officer, Replacing Bermudez * Australian Dollar Rises to Highest Since 1984 on Rate Advantage Over U.S. * Sri Lanka's Inflation Probably Slowed to 19.5% as Consumer Spending Cooled * Americans Plan to Save, Not Spend Economic-Stimulus Rebates, Survey Shows * Daimler: Chrysler lost $2.7B in August and September - 4:47 pm * Bernanke's `Brilliant' Fed Vision Evokes Investor Jeers Amid Credit Crisis * Lou Jiwei Suffers Blackstone's `Fat Rabbits' in $200 Billion Chinese Fund * Exxon Valdez Oil-Spill Dispute Reaches U.S. Supreme Court After 19 Years * Liechtensteiners Under Siege Cling to Bank Secrecy to Out-Swiss the Swiss * Canadian Banks May Report First Profit Drop in Six Years After Writedown * Honda to shift motorcycle production to Japan from U.S. - 12:26 pm * Fed chief signals rate cut to help wobbly economy - 12:37 pm * Ford recalls Mustangs for airbag fix - 12:47 pm * January new home sales slip to lowest pace in more than 12 years - 12:47 pm * Dollar sags to new lows against euro - 9:42 am * Durable goods orders plunge in January - 8:52 am * Wall Street swings positive after Fed remarks - 11:10 am * EU fines Microsoft record 899 million euro - 8:32 am * Britain hit by 5.3-magnitude earthquake - 12:37 pm * Report: Magna International fourth-quarter profit falls - 1:42 pm * BMW to cut 5,600 jobs - 8:04 am * Report: Nine consumer products companies suspected of price-fixing in France - 1:02 pm * Oil spikes above $102 a barrel - 12:57 pm * Fed chief hints at more rate cuts despite inflation fears - 12:42 pm * Vulture Fund Makes Deal With Delinquent Homeowners Fleeing Subprime Devil * Liechtenstein Probe Reflects Wider Global Information-Sharing on Tax Fraud * Pfizer Moves Drug Tests to South Korea From Japan Because of Rising Costs * New York Faces Double Whammy as Swaps Compound Failed Auctions * Japan's Consumer Prices Increase 0.8%, Matching Fastest Pace in Nine Years * Oil Rises to Record $103.05 as Dollar Declines; OPEC May Maintain Output * Japan Hedge Funds May Rebound After Two-Year Losing Streak, Rogers Says * Insurance Australia Profit Falls, Stoking Speculation Hawker May be Ousted * Centro Posts $1 Billion Loss on U.S. Writedown as Deadline For Debts Looms * Clinton, Obama Make Economic Appeals as Bush Takes Them to Task Over Trade
This will be driven by the fact that money stops circulating - at the level of the consumer, the banks, and businesses - a perfect storm. Consumers are paying down whatever debt that they can, if they can, they are walking away from mortgages, if they can't stay above water, they are cutting back on spending and trading down on everything from groceries to cars to clothing. Banks are getting a gift from Bernanke in the form of cheap fed funds overnight rates, but they are NOT lending money as everyone hoped they would. They are repairing their balance sheets, and trimming operations, and tightening credit standards dramatically. Business are beginning to lay off people, cutting back on purchasing and capital equipment improvement, and they are paring down inventories dramatically.
02-28-08 10:52 PM Somebody will come in and say that all the bad news comes out at the bottom, so we should go long.
last 23 trading days short trades on one setup: winners 17 losers 4 draws 2 profit +$1961 long trades on the same setup winners 16 losers 6 draws 1 profit +$2431
WOW all that and we are still at almost all time highs on the dow and S&P hummmmmmmmmmm ??????? Makes ya wonder how about this, just trade what you see long or short we will have sell off days and rally days, but i agree sell days will be more common than rally days Just try to keep a good head on ya sholders when you trade try not to let your bias rule your trade!! Good Luck all oh yes 1 more thing, stay away from wheat Take Care All, Joe baker