Get The Hell Out - "the Sequel"

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Port1385, May 21, 2008.

  1. Ok guys. When bylosellhi started the thread "Get the hell out", he was wrong because the market was essentially oversold.

    However, now is a different story. That rising wedge on the SnP chart has now been broken. There have been many charts today that have suffered technical damage.

    Im thinking that a correction is in process and that this will take 3-6 weeks to shake out. The market will likely re-test the previous lows. It may even go through those lows to establish new lows.

    The XLF will probably retest its Bear Stearns lows.

    The XLE is the only bullish thing.

    The airline index took a lot of damage and will most likely re-test multi-year lows with bankruptcy likely for at least one big name.

    I tuned into Mad Money and Fast Money to see what they were saying. They basically did not speak about being in a bear market. I can only surmise that this is a contrarian sign. The last time the market was at their lows, they urged caution and restraint when it was a good time to buy. Now they are simply ignoring it.

    Anectdotal and technical indicators are in the bear's favor. The only positive sign for the bulls is that most professional investors and traders are seeing what I am seeing. They are seeing the technical breakdown.

    As I type this, futures are in the green and I expect a small short covering rally in the morning. On Friday and especially Tuesday will be the real test. Should the SnP close below 1383, then we will not see the stocktrad7r here for quite a while.

    Seasonality is in the bears favor...
  2. Tomorrow decides the markets fate for the next couple months on a technical level. Bulls better cross their fingers and hope for a strong initial claims report.
  3. Do doubt about it! If those numbers are bad...:eek:

    Plus, a speech from Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner on the state of the Mortgage market Thursday.

    I'm still holding XLE, and EWZ.